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Author Topic: The Solar Grand Minimum  (Read 4658 times)

MadMax

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Re: The Solar Grand Minimum
« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2018, 03:17:29 PM »
Grand solar minimum: Data shows this is the lowest cycle since records began!!

https://www.sott.net/article/390583-Grand-solar-minimum-Data-shows-this-is-the-lowest-cycle-since-records-began

We have only 300 years-odd of detailed solar observations with telescopes, half that of magnetic records, half again in the radio spectrum and less than that for most modern instrument records (and 12 years of Watts Up With That to interpret it). So as the months pass our knowledge of solar activity is still growing appreciably. The evidence points to a major transition of activity in 2006 which has returned us to the solar conditions of the 19th century. 19th century-type climate is expected to follow.


We now have 70 years of F10.7 data. The F10.7 flux is considered to be the most accurate measure of solar activity. The solar cycles are numbered. Solar Cycle 24 has about two years to go before the month of minimum. To date the F10.7 flux has had a floor of 64.


The interplanetary magnetic field has been in a downtrend since the early 1980s with the last three solar minima lining up. If this trend continues then it will get down to a monthly average of 2.8 in 2020 at the 24/25 minimum.

We now have 150 years of daily aa Index data. This is a geomagnetic index of the Sun's magnetic activity. This graph explains why the world warmed in the second half of the 20th century. In the 67 years of data up to 1935, the Sun's magnetic shield of the Earth averaged 15.7 on the aa Index. In the subsequent 71 years of the Modern Warm Period up to 2006, this shield was 50 per cent stronger, averaging 23.2 on the aa Index. Since 2006, the aa Index has been at Little Ice Age-like levels with an average of 15.8 and falling as we go further into the 24/25 solar minimum.

Cosmic rays are dominantly protons and helium atoms. They hit oxygen and nitrogen atoms in the upper atmosphere and cause a cascade of particles in the lower atmosphere which can be holding enough water for cloud droplet formation but lacks nucleation sites. The increased cloud cover during low solar acitivity increases the Earth's albedo and the atmosphere cools.

Max.
"Ignorance is Bliss" - (Agent Smith the first Matrix Movie)

 

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