Author Topic: Solar Max Prediction  (Read 9812 times)

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Solar Max Prediction
« on: March 08, 2013, 06:56:15 PM »
A camel is actually a horse designed by a committee and this one has two humps now.  What amazes me more is how NASA does such a good job of eloquently explaining  how they were wrong for all the right reasons.  Which of course means that we on the designated fringe can only hope to be right for all the wrong reasons. ---Marshall

The calm before the solar storm? NASA warns 'something unexpected is happening to the Sun'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290289/NASA-warns-unexpected-happening-Sun-year-supposed-peak-sunspot-cycle.html

'Sunspot numbers are well below their values from 2011, and strong solar flares have been infrequent,' the space agency says.

Experts have been baffled by the apparent lack of activity - with many wondering if NASA simply got it wrong.

However, Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center believes he has a different explanation.

'This is solar maximum,' he says.

'But it looks different from what we expected because it is double-peaked.'

'The last two solar maxima, around 1989 and 2001, had not one but two peaks.'

Solar activity went up, dipped, then rose again, performing a mini-cycle that lasted about two years, he said.

Endtimesgal_2012

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2013, 07:05:09 PM »
Hahaha!  Marshall, you are so right, amazing how they cover their mistakes, they must lay awake at night figuring out how to do this.

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2013, 07:06:57 PM »
Well said, Marshal! Endtimesgal too!
 ;)

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2013, 06:30:27 AM »
M1 Flare today and NOAA says we could have another
X Flare soon. - Yowbarb
...
http://www.spaceweather.com/   

"CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1762 in the sun's southern hemisphere has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. So far, however, the sunspot is producing only low-level B- and C-class eruptions. The calm before the storm? Stay tuned."

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html     M1

..........................

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2013, 10:54:20 AM »
Posting this here - it seems to relate to the Topic subject matter...
- Yowbarb
...
http://www.spaceweather.com/

NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS BEHAVING STRANGELY: Noctilucent clouds have surprised researchers by appearing early this year. The unexpected apparition of electric-blue clouds before the middle of May hints at a change in the "teleconnections" of Earth's atmosphere.
NASA: video, full story 

ScienceCasts: An Early Start for Noctilucent Clouds    4:16   4,019

VID LINK:  http://youtu.be/ohQzHz9gy6c

ScienceAtNASA·116 videos
Subscribed 
............................................................................................

NASA Story:  Noctilucent Clouds Get an Early Start

June 7, 2013:  Every summer, something strange and wonderful happens high above the north pole.  Ice crystals begin to cling to the smoky remains of meteors, forming electric-blue clouds with tendrils that ripple hypnotically against the sunset sky.  Noctilucent clouds—a.k.a. "NLCs"--are a delight for high-latitude sky watchers, and around the Arctic Circle their season of visibility is always eagerly anticipated.

News flash: This year, NLCs are getting an early start. NASA's AIM spacecraft, which is orbiting Earth on a mission to study noctilucent clouds, started seeing them on May 13th.

"The 2013 season is remarkable because it started in the northern hemisphere a week earlier than any other season that AIM has observed," reports Cora Randall of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado. "This is quite possibly earlier than ever before."

The early start is extra-puzzling because of the solar cycle.  Researchers have long known that NLCs tend to peak during solar minimum and bottom-out during solar maximum—a fairly strong anti-correlation.  "If anything, we would have expected a later start this year because the solar cycle is near its maximum," Randall says. "So much for expectations."
......
[ CONTINUES ]  http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/07jun_nlcs/

...

Story:

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2013, 06:18:54 AM »
X-ray Solar Flares
 6-hr max:  C3   0931 UT Jun21
 24-hr:  M2   0316 UT  Jun21

explanation:  http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2013, 07:22:48 PM »
Another M flare -  sudden!
Yowbarb

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2013, 05:46:42 AM »
Chance of X Flares today or in the near future. More importantly, probably is the statement on Spaceweather "the southern hemisphere of the sun is waking up."
...
http://www.spaceweather.com/

BIG SOUTHERN SUNSPOTS:  One of the biggest sunspot groups of Solar Cycle 24 is emerging near the sun's southeastern limb. AR1785 has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares. Another active region trailing behind it, AR1787, is only slightly less potent, with a magnetic field capable of M-class eruptions. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the sprawling complex during the early hours of July 5th.
These sunspots are a sign that the sun's southern hemisphere is waking up. For most of the current solar cycle, the northern half of the sun has dominated sunspot counts and flare production. The south has been lagging behind--until now. June brought a surge in southern sunspots, and the trend is continuing in July. This "southern awakening" could herald a double-peaked Solar Maximum due in late 2013-early 2014.

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2013, 08:24:23 AM »
http://www.spaceweather.com/
BIG SUNSPOT FACES EARTH:  Colossal sunspot AR1785 is now directly facing Earth. The active region has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares, yet so far the sunspot has been mostly quiet. Could it be the calm before the storm? NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on July 8th. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

Hi Res:  http://www.astrosurf.com/viladrich/astro/soleil/wl/2013/AR1785-88-6July2013-C14-red.jpg


Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2013, 09:05:48 AM »
Yowbarb Note: Article saying this is not unusual during a time when solar maximum peak is approaching again..
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http://www.weather.com/news/science/space/large-coronal-hole-found-near-suns-north-pole-20130722

Large Coronal Hole Found Near Sun's North Pole
Karen C. Fox Published: Jul 22, 2013, 0:39 PM EDT NASA

The European Space Agency/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, or SOHO, captured this image of a gigantic coronal hole hovering over the sun’s north pole on July 18, 2013, at 9:06 a.m. EDT. Coronal holes are dark, low density regions of the sun’s outermost atmosphere, the corona. They contain little solar material, have lower temperatures, and therefore, appear much darker than their surroundings.

Coronal holes are a typical feature on the sun, though they appear at different places and with more frequency at different times of the sun’s activity cycle. The activity cycle is currently ramping up toward what is known as solar maximum, currently predicted for late 2013. During this portion of the cycle, the number of coronal holes decreases.

During solar max, the magnetic fields on the sun reverse and new coronal holes appear near the poles with the opposite magnetic alignment. The coronal holes then increase in size and number, extending further from the poles as the sun moves toward solar minimum again.  At such times, coronal holes have appeared that are even larger than this one.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2013, 09:09:23 AM by Yowbarb »

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2013, 04:58:15 AM »
Yowbarb Note: "Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center thinks Solar Cycle 24 is double peaked--and the second peak is yet to come. Also, weak solar cycles have been known to produce very strong flares. The strongest solar storm in recorded history, the Carrington Event of 1859, occurred during a relatively weak solar cycle like this one."
...

http://www.spaceweather.com/


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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2013, 06:25:56 AM »

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2013, 08:36:46 AM »
AR1817, is directly facing Earth and poses a threat for X-class solar flares. 13 Aug 13.jpg

Endtimesgal_2012

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2013, 05:59:40 PM »
Barb:  Just want to say "thank you" for all the hard work you do on this website.  I don't know what we would do without you, I have no idea how you manage to post all these interesting and informative links every day.

Yowbarb

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Re: Solar Max Prediction
« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2013, 08:11:51 AM »
Barb:  Just want to say "thank you" for all the hard work you do on this website.  I don't know what we would do without you, I have no idea how you manage to post all these interesting and informative links every day.

Endtimesgal, I missed your post...was konked out asleep.  :)
Thank you very much for the kind words...
I duck onto here on and off all day... Mostly I do chores here at home and then post articles and info...

I am learning along with everyone else... There is so much we all need to either learn or have the instructions handy...
One of these days I want to actually print out and collate a lot of the survival ideas, manuals, pdfs, herbal remedies, survival medicines etc. Nothing like getting it printed and ready to take along...
The idea is to print, collate, staple; put in a waterproof binder and keep these in the bugout vehicle or take to the survival location... Some things cannot be improvised or faked...some things need instructions!  :)
Thank you also for all you are doing! That is really good for my morale.  ;)
- Barb T.