Author Topic: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US  (Read 22012 times)

Yowbarb

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TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« on: February 18, 2014, 06:55:43 AM »
Yowbarb Note - New Topic: 

TOR:CON Index -Tornado Condition Index for the US 2014

Note: For now I am only going to post the TOR:CON for the two days when tornadoes are most likely. Do check the TOR CON page.
Will update later in week
.......................................................................

TOR:CON Index info on TWC

LINK:  http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornado-torcon-index

Thursday, Feb. 20

Isolated severe thunderstorms in central and southern IL, central and southern IN, western and central KY, east-central and southern MO, extreme eastern OK (morning), AR, west half of TN, all of MS, all of LA, and northwest AL.  TOR:CON - 4 east AR, north MS; 3 rest of this area. The severe threat may continue overnight across AL.

Friday, Feb. 21

Very isolated severe thunderstorms in eastern NC, central and eastern SC, east-central and south GA, extreme southeast AL, FL panhandle, and north half of the FL peninsula.  TOR:CON - 2


Another page to refer to:
Tornado Central:  http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-weather-tracker-page

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2014, 12:22:36 PM »
http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornado-torcon-index  TOR:CON Index

Wednesday night, Feb. 19-20

Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and possibly a damaging gust in southeast KS, northeast OK, southwest and central MO, northwest AR.  TOR:CON - 1

Thursday, Feb. 20

Looks like a severe thunderstorm and possibly tornado outbreak. Starts with isolated severe thunderstorms in the morning in extreme southeast KS, extreme northeast OK, southwest and central MO, northwest AR, becoming more numerous and spreading across central and east AR, central and south IL, IN, south MI, west OH, west and central KY, west and middle TN, north and west AL, MS, LA.  TOR:CON - 4 south IN, west half KY, west half TN, north MS, northwest AL; 3 southeast MO, south IL, east AR, north LA, central MS, west-central AL; 2 rest of area above.

Thursday night: A line of thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes in east IN, south MI, central and east KY, middle and east TN, east and south MS, southeast LA, spreading across AL, GA, western FL panhandle, northwest SC, west NC, western VA, WV, OH, western PA.  TOR:CON - 3 northeast AL, northwest GA, east TN, east KY; 2 rest of area.

TOR:CON Thursday morning through early evening:
AL northwest - 4
AL west-central -  3
AL southwest - 2
AR northwest, central - 2
AR east - 3
IL south - 3
IL central - 2
IN south - 4
IN central - 3
IN north - 2 or less
KS extreme southeast, morning - 2
KY west half - 4
KY east - 3
LA - 2
MI south - less than 2
MO southeast - 3
MO east-central, southwest - 2
MS north - 4
MS central - 3
MS south - 2
OH west - 2
OK extreme northeast, morning - 2
TN west half - 4
TN east - 3
other areas - 1 or less

Friday, Feb. 21

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and possibly a tornado in east PA, NJ, extreme south NY, MD, DE, east half VA, east half NC and SC, southeast GA, north and central FL.  TOR:CON - 3 east NC; 2 rest of area.

Saturday, Feb. 22

Probably no severe thunderstorms, but a chance of a thunderstorm in FL.  TOR:CON - near zero

Sunday, Feb. 23

A chance of a very isolated severe thunderstorm along a stalled front in southeast LA, southeast MS, FL panhandle, south AL, south GA.  TOR:CON - less than 1

Monday, Feb. 24

Probably no severe thunderstorms, but a chance of a thunderstorm in north and central FL.  TOR:CON - near zero

Tuesday, Feb. 25

Probably no severe thunderstorms, but a chance of a thunderstorm in central FL and south-central TX.  TOR:CON - near zero

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2014, 12:09:13 PM »
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/ussevereweatheralerts_large.html


http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-weather-tracker-page

TOR:CON Index  Thursday, March 6

Isolated severe thunderstorms in central and south FL. TOR:CON - 3 and central FL; 2 to 3 south FL

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2014, 11:56:39 AM »
TOR:CON Index (Tornado Condition Index, developed by Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel. See farther below for explanation of TOR:CON.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-tornado/tornado-torcon-index

Sunday, March 30

Probably no severe thunderstorms, but a low chance of a damaging gust in east UT, west CO. TOR:CON - less than 1

Monday, March 31

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in north-central and northeast TX, south-central and southeast OK.  TOR:CON - 1

Tuesday, April 1

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm by evening in the eastern TX panhandle, west TX near Childress, Abilene, and San Angelo and Midland, southwest and west OK.  TOR:CON - 2 or less

Wednesday, April 2

Scattered severe thunderstorms in MO, west-central and southwest IL, AR, east  and south-central KS, southwest, central, and east OK, central and east TX, northwest LA.  TOR:CON - 4 north and central MO, southwest and central OK; 3 rest of area

TOR:CON details:

AR - 3

IL west-central, southwest - 3

KS south-central, east - 3

LA northwest - 3

MO north, central - 4

MO south - 3

OK southwest, central - 4

OK east - 3

TX central, east as far south as San Antonio and northern Houston - 3\

other areas - 1 or less

Thursday, April 3

Severe thunderstorm outbreak likely, although the area below could change in forecasts on subsequent days due to there being some differences in current computer forecasts.  Severe thunderstorms in central and south MO, west-central and south IL, west KY, west TN, northwest MS, AR, extreme southeast KS, east OK, north half LA, northeast and central TX in an area east of I-35 southward to San Antonio and the north suburbs of Houston. TOR:CON - 5 central and south  MO; 5 AR, 4 northeast TX, northwest AL; 3 elsewhere.

TOR:CON details:

AR - 5

IL west-central, south - 3

KS extreme southeast - 3

KY west - 3

LA northwest - 4

LA northeast - 3

MO central, south - 5

MS northwest - 3

OK east - 3

TN west - 3

TX northeast - 4

TX central , southeast to Houston - 3
other areas - 1 or less
Friday, April 4

The severe threat will likely push farther east, but there are enough differences between computer models to defer specific forecasts for another day or so.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2014, 01:14:04 PM by Yowbarb »

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2014, 10:22:37 PM »
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-tornado/tornado-torcon-index

Sunday, April 13

Still not perfect agreement between computer models which, when combined with a lot of warm dry air aloft initially trying to suppress thunderstorms, means that there may be several patches of severe storms and maybe will hold down the number of tornadoes.  Scattered severe thunderstorms in central and northeast TX (possibly as far south as a line from San Antonio to College Station to Nacogdoches), extreme northwest LA, east half OK, west and central AR, southeast KS, northeast, central and south MO, west-central and southwest IL. TOR:CON - 4 central and northeast TX, east half OK, southeast KS, southwest MO, northwest AR; 2 to 3 rest of area

Monday, April 14

Still differences in speed of the cold front in different computer models. Isolated severe thunderstorms in southwest and south-central TN, north, central, and southwest AL, west FL panhandle, MS, southeast AR, LA, middle and upper coastal TX. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 these areas

Tuesday, April 15

Isolated severe thunderstorms in extreme southeast VA, east NC, east half SC, east-central and south GA, FL panhandle, north and central FL, extreme southeast AL. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 these areas

Wednesday, April 16 through Thursday, April 17

Probably no severe thunderstorms.  TOR:CON - near zero

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2014, 08:23:33 AM »
http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornado-torcon-index

Tuesday, April 22

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm by or in the evening in extreme eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and western Kansas.  TOR:CON - 2 or less

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in southeast Virginia, east half of North Carolina, central and eastern South Carolina, south Georgia, and south Alabama.  TOR:CON - 1

Wednesday, April 23


Severe thunderstorms and probably a small tornado outbreak in southeast South Dakota, the eastern half of Nebraska, central Kansas, western Oklahoma, eastern parts of the Texas Panhandle and a swath of west Texas from near Childress to Fort Stockton.  TOR:CON - 4 southeast SD, eastern NE, eastern TX panhandle, western OK; 3 rest of the area

DETAILS:


KS central - 3 to 4
NE east half - 4
OK west (except western panhandle) - 4
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 4
TX west near Lubbock, Abilene, Midland, Fort Stockton - 3


Thursday, April 24


Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in southeast Iowa, eastern and southern Missouri, west-central and southern Illinois, Arkansas, extreme western Kentucky, extreme west Tennessee, and northeast Texas. TOR:CON - 2

Friday, April 25

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in the eastern half of Virginia, central and eastern North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, central and south Alabama, central and south Mississippi, southern Arkansas, the northern half of Louisiana, and extreme east Texas. TOR:CON - less than 2

Saturday, April 26


Isolated severe thunderstorms along a warm/stationary front in the north half of Arkansas, northern and western Oklahoma, southern Kansas, extreme southeast Colorado, eastern part of the Texas Panhandle, and west Texas near Childress, Abilene, San Angelo, Fort Stockton. TOR:CON - 3 northwest OK;

2 other areas above.  Computer models are not in total agreement about the severe threat area and coverage, so confidence is somewhat reduced.

Sunday, April 27

Scattered severe thunderstorms in southeast Kansas, east half Oklahoma, east Texas from near I-35 eastward and south to Austin, northwest Louisiana, western Arkansas. TOR:CON - 3 these areas.  A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, northwest and north-central Kansas.  TOR:CON - 2 or less

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2014, 09:01:35 AM »
Yowbarb Note:
Updating the TORCON Index Topic SEE below Friday through Monday.

HAZARDOUS DAY MONDAY April 28th 2014 PLS note. Image at bottom of this post.
TOR CONs of 4 and 5 in several locations.


http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornado-torcon-index


Endtimesgal_2012

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2014, 09:36:47 AM »
Thanks for sharing this info.

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2014, 11:46:39 AM »
Thanks for sharing this info.
Anyone who knows people in those areas - they need a heads up.
There have been NO fatalities so far in this tornado season. Let's hope that continues...
People need to pay attention. Also not sure why in some cases the big old tornado siren doesn't go off until a person barely has time to get to the basement.

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2014, 09:15:30 AM »
Yowbarb Note: Right now on TWC The Weather Channel special program on safety and how to survive tornadoes.
This will be all-day coverage on TV, online and mobile phone apps.

To be real they are trying to prevent a lot of the horrible things that could happen. if U have time, tune in.

Update: A TOR:CON Index of 7 for Shreveport Louisiana and all points fifty miles from that. Tomorrow, Sunday April 27th


TOR:CON 5 for ST LOUIS, MISSOURI

TOR:CON 5 for LITLE ROCK, ARKANSAS
...

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2014, 01:38:28 PM »
Yowbarb Update: At least 18 people were killed in the storms late afternoon yesterday and last night. Unfortunately the highest TOR CON went up to 8 today. North Alabama = 8. Many high TOR CONS and the whole area in red is hazardous. Take Care, it's going to be a wicked 2 days. Even then not over... See info below.
...

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-torcon-index

Monday, April 28


Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in the following areas (alphabetical by state):
•North Alabama - TOR:CON 8
•West-central Alabama - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•Eastern Arkansas - TOR:CON 5
•North Georgia - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•Southern Illinois - TOR:CON 5
•Northwest, central Illinois - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•West-central and southern Indiana - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•Central and southern Iowa - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•Kentucky - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•Louisiana - TOR:CON 5
•Eastern Missouri - TOR:CON 5
•Northeast, central, southwest Mississippi - TOR:CON 8
•Northeast Nebraska - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•Western and southern North Carolina - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•South Carolina - TOR:CON 3 to 4
•South-central Tennessee - TOR:CON 8
•Southeast Tennessee - TOR:CON 6
•West Tennessee - TOR:CON 5
•Upper coastal Texas (near Beaumont) - TOR:CON 3 to 4

The severe threat is likely to continue overnight and transition to a heavy rain threat overnight in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, north Alabama, middle and east Tennessee, and central and eastern Kentucky.

Monday Night, April 28-29


Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the following areas:
•North and central Alabama - 7
•South Alabama - 6
•Western Florida Panhandle - 5
•North Georgia -  6
•West-central Georgia - 5
•Central and southeast Illinois - 2
•Indiana - 2
•Kentucky - 2
•Northeast and south Louisiana - 4 to 5
•South and east-central Mississippi - 7
•West-central and northeast Mississippi - 4 to 5 early
•Western North Carolina - 5
•South-central and southeast North Carolina - 2
•Southwest Ohio - 2
•Northern South Carolina - 5
•East Tennessee- 6
•Middle Tennessee - 3
•West Tennessee - 2
•Southwest Virginia - 2
•Southwestern West Virginia - 2

Tuesday, April 29


Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the following areas:

AL  south - 7
AL north - 5
AR extreme east - 2 to 3
FL west panhandle - 7
FL east panhandle, northeast - 4
GA north, central, southwest - 6
GA southeast - 4
IL south, east-central - 2
IN south - 2
IN north - 2 to 3
KY east - 4
KY west, central - 2 to 3
LA southeast - 4
LA southwest, northeast - 2 to 3
MO extreme southeast - 2
MS south - 5
MS north, central - 2 to 3
NC - 5
OH north - 2 to 3
OH south - 2
SC west - 6
SC east - 4
TN east - 4
TN west, middle - 2 to 3
VA southwest - 4
VA south-central, southeast - 2 to 3
WV west, south - 4

Wednesday, April 30


Scattered severe thunderstorms and the threat of a few tornadoes in the following areas:

AL southeast - 3 to 4
FL panhandle, north - 3
GA northeast - 3
GA central, south - 5
MD - 5
NC - 6
PA southwest - 3
SC - 6
TN extreme northeast - 3
VA - 5
WV - 3

Thursday, May 1

Isolated severe thunderstorms in southeast VA, east NC, east SC, southeast GA, FL peninsula.   TOR:CON - 3 southeast VA, east NC; 2 rest of  area

Friday, May 2

Probably no severe thunderstorms, but some non-severe thunderstorms possible in Florida. Low chance of severe TOR:CON - less than 1


Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2014, 03:05:03 PM »
UPDATE:
•Northeast, central, southwest Mississippi - TOR:CON 8


http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-torcon-index

Endtimesgal_2012

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2014, 08:54:35 PM »
My youngest daughter is in Alabama for the military right now attending a school.  The tornado touched down about 8 miles from where she is staying.  I pray she will continue to be safe with all the warnings that are posted now.

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2014, 09:01:58 PM »
My youngest daughter is in Alabama for the military right now attending a school.  The tornado touched down about 8 miles from where she is staying.  I pray she will continue to be safe with all the warnings that are posted now.

Tornado Watches and warnings all in Alabama, Georgia tornado too, Peachtree area...
I'm sure they will know how to be prepared in the military school...I surely understand your concern. I have been watching the live coverage no on and off for hours as I am doing things or dozing off. Some area of Alabama got a TOR:CON of 9 this evening. There is some college where they had to shelter...
Tornado already passed near and partly through Tuscaloosa...they don't think yet it is as bad as the last Tuscaloosa tornado...
« Last Edit: April 29, 2014, 05:47:19 AM by Yowbarb »

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR:CON Index - Tornado Condition Index for the US
« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2014, 04:44:33 AM »
Tuesday, April 29

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the following areas (TOR:CON values listed):

AL south - 7
AL north - 5
AR extreme east - 2 to 3
FL west panhandle - 7
FL east panhandle, northeast - 4
GA north, central, southwest - 6
GA southeast - 4
IL south, east-central - 2
IN south - 2
IN north - 2 to 3
KY east - 4
KY west, central - 2 to 3
LA southeast - 4
LA southwest, northeast - 2 to 3
MO extreme southeast - 2
MS south - 5
MS north, central - 2 to 3
NC - 5
OH north - 2 to 3
OH south - 2
SC west - 6
SC east - 4
TN east - 4
TN west, middle - 2 to 3
VA southwest - 4
VA south-central, southeast - 2 to 3
WV west, south - 4