Author Topic: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018  (Read 1674 times)

Yowbarb

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #30 on: January 11, 2018, 12:09:55 AM »

R.R. Book

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #31 on: January 11, 2018, 06:26:20 AM »
The deforestation of California in recent wildfires has led to catastrophic mudslides there, as evidenced from this before and after set of photos from BPEarthwatch, below.  The landslides have also disabled the main operations of the Union Pacific Railroad there; see photo set 2.  Photo 3 shows the force with which automobiles have been smashed into boulders and crushed by trees.  Helicopters and other large equipment are being brought in to dig people out of buried houses.  The 4th photo set depicts a major road washed out, leaving stranded 18-wheel trucks that are barely visible in the background.  Added all together with the wildfires, there has been a major economic impact to this area, though much of the population there is economically resilient:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD1I_PtuxJw

@ 7:54, 8:46, 9:26, 10:58

This next 3 minute video, translated "California Burned and Drowned," has more overhead panoramic footage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1pOmX5H-7E
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 10:46:58 AM by R.R. Book »

Yowbarb

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #32 on: January 12, 2018, 01:37:24 PM »
R.R. thanks for posting - good grief!  :o

Yowbarb

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #33 on: January 12, 2018, 01:40:56 PM »
http://www.weather.gov/

Arctic Front Progresses Towards the Eastern U.S.
A sharp arctic frontal boundary will continue moving eastward towards the eastern U.S. into this weekend impacting travel. Significant freezing rain, accumulating snow, and gusty winds producing wind chills can be expected. Ahead of the front, heavy rain and warm temperatures may cause flooding; and, in portions of New England, heavy rain, snowmelt, and ice jams may produce rapid river rises

Read More:  http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd

Yowbarb

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #34 on: January 12, 2018, 01:45:08 PM »
LOOP: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd

Short Range Public Discussion
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product: http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/contract.html
 
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 13 2018 - 00Z Mon Jan 15 2018

...Heavy snow possible from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast...

...Rain/freezing rain/sleet possible Central Appalachians to the
Northeast...

...Heavy rain possible along New England Coast...


A strong front over the eastern portion of the country will move eastward
off the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday afternoon.
The system will produce
rain with possible embedded thunderstorms over the Southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast through early Saturday morning.  Rain will
also develop over parts of the Northeast to the Central/Southern
Appalachians that will end south to north along the East Coast by Saturday
evening.  The system will also produce snow from parts of the Tennessee
Valley into the Lower Great Lakes that will move into the Central
Appalachians into the Northeast by Saturday morning.  The snow will be
heavy at times.  The snow will start to wind down on Saturday afternoon
from the Central Appalachians into the Northern Mid-Atlantic and ending
over the Northeast by Saturday evening.  In addition, along the rain/snow
line, a band of rain/freezing rain/sleet will develop from the Central
Appalachians into the Northeast that will moce eastward to the Northern
Mid-Atlantic into Northern New England by Saturday morning.  The
rain/freezing rain/sleet will slowly end, again south to north, over the
Northeast by late afternoon on Saturday.  In the wake of the storm, light
lake effect snow will develop downwind from Great Lakes winding down by
Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, onshore flow will stream moisture into the Northwest through
Saturday evening.  The onshore flow will aid in producing rain over parts
of the Pacific Northwest with snow at higher elevations through Saturday
evening.  Additionally, a front extending along the east side of the
Rockies and cold high pressure building into the Plains will aid in
producing snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies into parts of
the Central Plains through late Friday evening.  A wave of low pressure
over the Northern Rockies, on Saturday morning, will move southeastward to
the Central High Plains by Sunday morning.  Snow will develop over the
Northern Rockies on Saturday that will move southeastward into the
Central/Northern Plains overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Yowbarb

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #35 on: January 15, 2018, 03:51:04 PM »
Yowbarb Note: This forecast and video won't tell the whole story. Please be aware there could suddenly be dangerous ice in your area even if you are in the southern US, so PLS check your local weather daily as Winter Storm INGA storm progresses. This is not expected to be a major snow maker but there will be sudden changes such as the amount of ice on southern roads.
...

http://www.weather.gov/

Very Cold with Snow and Ice Across the Central & Eastern States; Turning Unsettled in the Northwest
Well below normal temperatures, bitterly cold wind chills, and another round of snow and ice will impact the central and eastern U.S. through at least Tuesday. Wintry precipitation will extend as far south as Texas and Louisiana. Meanwhile, rain and wind will return to the Pacific Northwest, with locally heavy precipitation by mid-week... Read More: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd
...
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-01-14-winter-storm-inga-midwest-northeast-south-snow-forecast-mid-january

Video
Winter Storm Inga's Snowy Swath to Sweep through the Midwest, Northeast, South; Dangerous Ice Possible in Central Texas
By Chris Dolce
Jan 15 2018 06:00 PM EST
weather.com

Story Highlights
Snow and gusty winds will sweep through the Midwest into Monday.
A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will also impact the South Monday night-Tuesday.
Some snowfall is expected along the East Coast, but a powerful coastal storm is not expected.
Winter Storm Inga will bring snow to the Midwest and East early this week as portions of the South face a slippery mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Yowbarb

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #36 on: January 15, 2018, 05:25:58 PM »
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/160003_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...


A strong cold front entering the NW Gulf Tue will reach from the
Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue
evening, and move SE of the area on Wed. Northerly winds to gale
force are possible near Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed,
and frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the NW waters
Tue and Tue night. Strong high pressure will follow the front.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore
Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia,
Africa and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to
02N30W to 03N35W to the Equator at 50W into NE Brazil. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90-110 nm N of ITCZ axis between
35W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO..
.

High pressure over the SE CONUS extends a ridge across the Gulf
region, producing mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds, except
fresh northerly winds in the SE Gulf. Stratocumulus clouds over
the Gulf waters are more concentrated in the southern Gulf.
Persistent low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre
Oriental in Mexico. The ridge will slowly move E tonight. Fresh
to locally strong N to NE winds will persist E of 85W through
Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue
afternoon followed by a strong high pressure system. Please see
Special Features section for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba across Jamaica to
the coast of Panama near 09N82W.
Scattered showers are noted in
association with the frontal boundary S of 17N. Stratocumulus
clouds are observed behind the front over the NW Caribbean.
Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers elsewhere E of
the front are forecast to weaken and dissipate by Tue evening. A
recent ASCAT pass indicates fresh to strong N winds behind the
front, with strong northerly winds near the coast of Nicaragua.
Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will drift
westward Tue into Wednesday, increasing the likelihood of
showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean. Otherwise,
strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night
through Fri night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft
in the tropical Atlc waters until Tue evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next couple of days. A surface
trough passing N of Puerto Rico will produce little convection.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N70W across the Bahamas to
eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front
will gradually diminish through Tue as the front weakens. A
strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed, then
weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu
evening, then become a westward moving trough over the far SE
waters Fri. Strong high pres behind the front will bring strong
N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on Thursday.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin to the
African coast.
The most recent satellite-derived wind data
indicated a large area of fresh to strong trades from 20N-31N
between 20W-60W. A surface trough associated with an upper-level
low extends from 29N64W to 23N64W.
Fresh to locally strong E-SE
winds are NE of the trough due to the pressure gradient between
it and the strong mid-Atlantic ridge. A band of showers is well
east of the trough, and covers the waters from 20N-22N between
45W-50W, and from 21N-25N between 50W-57W. Another surface
trough is SE of another upper-level low centered near 27N42W
.

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated
with this system is found from 26N-31N between 35W- 43W.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell

Yowbarb

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #37 on: January 21, 2018, 10:44:26 PM »
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 22 2018 - 00Z Wed Jan 24 2018

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Eastern
Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy snow possible from the Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi
Valley and over the Cascades...

...Rain/freezing rain possible from the Central Plains into the Upper
Great Lakes and into Northern New England...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern
California and Northern New England Coast...

A storm over the Central Plains will lift northeastward to the Great Lakes
by Tuesday.  The system will produce snow over parts of the Central
Rockies that will end overnight Sunday.  Snow will also develop over the
Central Plains, on Sunday evening, that will expand into Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes by Monday morning continuing into Tuesday
morning.  The snow will be heavy at times over the Central Plains
overnight Sunday and over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday
into Monday evening.  Overnight Monday, the snow will stop over the
Central Plains as the snow moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley and
Western Ohio Valley.  On Monday afternoon into evening, snow will develop
over parts of Northern New England continuing into Tuesday.

In addition, rain will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes on Sunday evening that will expand into the Ohio
Valley/Lower Great Lakes by Monday morning.   The rain will expand into
Southern New England by Monday evening and into the Northern Mid-Atlantic
overnight Monday.  In the transition zone between the rain and snow,
rain/freezing rain will develop in bands from the Central Plains into the
Great Lakes, on Sunday evening into Monday, and into New England overnight
Monday into Tuesday.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday evening
advancing to the Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast by Monday morning.
By Monday evening, the showers and thunderstorms will move to parts of the
Ohio Valley southward to the Eastern Gulf Coast and to parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast by Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy will move inland over the Pacific Northwest
moving eastward to the Northern Plains by Tuesday.  The system will
produce rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest/Northern California that will move inland to the Northern
Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies by Tuesday morning.  The area of
snow will be reduced in areal coverage overnight Monday into Tuesday due
to the lack of moisture.  In the wake of the energy, onshore flow will aid
in producing rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest through late Monday night as the low-level flow become parallel
to the coast, likewise, overnight Monday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Yowbarb

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Re: WINTER Dec 2017 - March 2018
« Reply #38 on: January 21, 2018, 10:47:12 PM »
It doesn't look like tornado watches were predicted but they are up there on the NWS board now.
Tornado Watches now in ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA and TEXAS. Watches valid until 4 AM.