Author Topic: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017  (Read 857 times)

Yowbarb

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Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« on: August 16, 2017, 09:06:01 PM »
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/national_hurricane_center_27.html#incart_river_index

Active Atlantic keeps National Hurricane Center busy with 3 systems to watch

Updated on August 16, 2017 at 7:16 PM Posted on August 16, 2017 at 7:10 PM
By National Hurricane Center, NOAA
The National Hurricane Center continued to monitor three Atlantic systems Wednesday evening (Aug. 16):

A low pressure system about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles became a little more concentrated Wednesday afternoon, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds were forecast to become more favorable for development Thursday or Friday as the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing into the Caribbean on Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds were expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles Thursday night and Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary. Tropical formation chances were 50 percent over the next 48 hours and 60 percent over the next five days.
A second area of low pressure was about 950 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remained disorganized. Gradual development of this system was possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds were expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation as the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Formation chances were 40 percent through 48 hours and 50 percent through five days.
A tropical wave southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions were forecast to become favorable for development over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Formation chances were zero over the next  48 hours and 40 percent over the next five days.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Gert became a Category 2 hurricane Wednesday afternoon and was moving quickly northeast over the northwestern Atlantic. It was not forecast to threaten the U.S. mainland.

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2017, 09:43:30 PM »
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/triple-tropical-threat-looms-in-the-atlantic-caribbean/70002485

Triple tropical threat looms in the Atlantic, Caribbean

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
August 16, 2017, 3:07:18 PM EDT

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2017, 08:01:30 PM »
Yowbarb Note -
Here is a portion of an Advisory about Hurricane Maria, how it is likely to affect portions of the southeastern coast.

Screen shot:  2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, Hurricane Maria, Lee, 1033 PM EDT, Sept 24, 2017
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/250232.shtml

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory
......
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2017, 09:06:22 AM »
Yowbarb Note: Category 1 Hurricane Maria not expected to collide with the southeastern coast of the US. Could impacts in the form of high waves etc.
Offshore from South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia, Hurricane Warnings = RED. Tropical Storm Warnings = Dark Red. (As well as the tropical Atlantic, Bahamas, the Caribbean Sea, etc.)

Screen shot from the NHC: Hurricane MARIA 7 Day Forecast Cone, 11 AM Sept 25, 2017
...

http://www.weather.gov/

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Hurricane%20Warning 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Tropical%20Storm%20Warning

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2017, 08:57:59 AM »
Hurricanes LEE and MARIA are still out there......
from MARIA:  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
from LEE: Currently no hazard to land
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2017, 09:49:47 AM »
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/261440.shtml

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Ocracoke Inlet to Cape
Hatteras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight.  A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.   Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm within the
next day or so.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center
and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41025 located
about 15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras recently reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a wind gust to 49 mph (80
km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:
  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches
over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States.
  These swells are also affecting
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2017, 06:14:00 AM »
Yowbarb Note: Here are portions of the latest Advisory for Tropical Storm NATE, those which are specifically for the southeastern US.
Keep an eye on this storm, if you live in the central Gulf states!

Screen shot is from NWS. Image shows Tropical Storm Warnings, Hurricane Watches etc. as of 8 AM CDT.
.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/  NHC Home Page

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/061142.shtml

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
...
http://www.weather.gov/   NWS US Map, 8 AM CDT

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2017, 07:28:51 PM »
Yowbarb Note: Here are portions of the Advisory on Tropical Storm Nate, in the southeastern states which may be hit.
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/062351.shtml

Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

......
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2017, 10:25:03 AM »
Yowbarb Notes: A map of the Southeastern US states from wikipedia
...
Hurricane NATE will definitely be impacting the southeast this week. Several states... It becomes a Tropical Depression when it hits Kentucky. The storm is predicted to carry o,n affecting PA and several states in the northeast.


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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2017, 12:00:06 AM »
Yowbarb Note: Woke up with Accuweather on...
The northern eyewall of Hurricane NATE moved into Mississippi...Landfall about 8 PM last night.
NATE is now north of Biloxi, MS with Maximum sustained winds about 85 mph.  NHC Advisory below is from 1 AM CDT about an hour ago. Satellite is from about an hour ago, 0115 Central Daylight time.
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/080552.shtml?

Hurricane Nate Public Advisory   1 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 080552
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...EYE OF HURRICANE NATE MOVED OVER KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE WHERE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES RESIDE...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 88.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Pointe a la Hache.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nate was located
by surface observations and NOAA Doppler radar over Biloxi
Mississippi near latitude 30.5 North,
longitude 88.9 West. Nate is
moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track,
Nate's center will continue to move inland over Mississippi and
across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian
Mountains through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Nate is expected to weaken quickly as it moves farther
inland, and it is likely to become a tropical storm later
today. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 984 mb
(29.06 inches).

A water level of 4.8 ft Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently
reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Shell Beach,
Louisiana.  The gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi,
recently reported a water level of 5.5 ft MHHW.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in the hurricane warning area for the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area through this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
North of Pointe a la Hache to the mouth of the Pearl River...4 to 6 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Pointe a la Hache...1 to 3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location
, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: additional 1 to 2 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama,
the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern
Mississippi today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2017, 12:15:03 AM »
Hurricane Nate makes landfall near Mississippi River  0:52

https://youtu.be/vrcG-SckgJk

Fox News
Published on Oct 7, 2017

Fourth major storm in two months lands as category 1 hurricane.

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Re: Hurricane Season in the Southeast, 2017
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2017, 12:43:02 AM »