Author Topic: Hurricane Season 2017  (Read 1717 times)

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2017, 07:31:22 PM »
Yowbarb note:
"Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE" has become Tropical Storm CINDY.
Gradually heading toward central Gulf states...TS CINDY nearly stationary... Sea Surface Temperatures are high, for example, 29 and 30 centigrade which is 85-86 degrees fahrenheit. I mean now, at night.
The high water temps and slow speed could cause this storm to strengthen before it hits the central Gulf states.
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html     Gulf Of Mexico - Visible Loop

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2017, 07:50:29 PM »
TEXAS and LOUISIANA will be hit by this storm, looks like. Tropical Storm CINDY is slowly heading toward the northern Gulf states...
...

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2017, 01:57:32 PM »
Yowbarb Note:  Tropical Storm CINDY's pressure is pretty darned low.

"The Saffir-Simpson scale ranges from Category 1 hurricanes with a barometric pressure of greater than 980 millibars"

However, since dryer air is moving in, this may weaken the system. We will see.
...

One hour ago:

"Forecast: Drier air moving in, lower rain coverage"
Updated: Jun 21, 2017 3:44 PM EDT
By Kristen Kirchhaine, Meteorologist  http://www.nbc-2.com

My screen shot
Tropical Storm CINDY, 994 Pressure, northwest at 8 knots toward TX, LA. 06-21-2017 NHC
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2   

2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2017, 02:11:18 PM »
Tropical Storm CINDY in the Gulf of Mexico.

Red and Violet in this satellite image = LOW Pressure
 
Blue = High Pressure.
...
Gulf Of Mexico - Visible Loop   http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php   NOAA, Latest Satellite Imagery

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html  (Tropical Storm CINDY in the Gulf, 2015 UTC,  315 PM CDT 06-21-2017 NOAA)

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2017, 08:22:51 PM »
Tropical Storm CINDY's pressure has dropped two points lower.
In the 4 PM report, NHC, the pressure was 994. It is now 992.
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/     NHC Home page

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CINDY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2017, 08:44:04 PM »
You Tube video:

TEAM COVERAGE: Rain hitting parts of Houston ahead of Tropical Storm Cindy landfall 5:07

https://youtu.be/ER28KDBJN84

Published on Jun 21, 2017
Some parts of the Houston area saw rain Wednesday evening ahead of Tropical Storm Cindy's landfall.

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2017, 09:05:30 PM »
Tropical Storm Cindy Could Bring Life-Threatening Flooding To US Gulf Coast | NBC Nightly News

video link:  https://youtu.be/uBzjzaaNSxQ

Published on Jun 21, 2017
Up to a foot of rain is expected in some parts of the US Gulf coast, bringing flash flooding to Louisiana and kicking up surf along Mississippi.
» Subscribe to NBC News: http://nbcnews.to/SubscribeToNBC
» Watch more NBC video: http://bit.ly/MoreNBCNews

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2017, 01:51:49 AM »
Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   

U.S. Watch/Warning   Local Products 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 220553
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...CINDY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 93.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 93.6 West.  Cindy is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn
toward the north should occur later this morning, with a turn
toward the northeast expected on Friday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Cindy will move inland near the Louisiana-Texas border
later this morning, then move across western and northern Louisiana
and into southeastern Arkansas tonight and early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Weakening is expected today and tonight while Cindy
moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through tonight.  This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through tonight.  Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

STORM SURGE:  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible tonight from the far
western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2017, 01:57:22 AM »
TROPICAL STORM CINDY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER 50 MPH WINDS HEAVY RAINS 6"+  12:08

video link:  https://youtu.be/uXIMQons-3M

Joe Cioffi
Published on Jun 21, 2017
Tropical Storm Cindy is making landfall tonight on the Texas Louisiana border. Top winds are 50 mph. Heavy rains of 6-12 inches are occurring from Southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle though the rains to the east have diminished. Radar loop shows the center moving onshore. GFS model brings rain northeast to the Middle Atlantic States and Southern areas of the Northeast late Friday night and part of Saturday but not all models agree with this idea.

...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...CINDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

4:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 22
Location: 29.9°N 93.6°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2017, 12:12:57 PM »
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 22 2017 - 12Z Sat Jun 24 2017

...Tropical storm Cindy is forecast to move northeastward and slowly
weaken to a tropical depression producing heavy rain and embedded severe
weather...


...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes and over the
Central/Southern High Plains...

...Heavy rain is possible from the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians to
Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley...

Tropical storm Cindy will move northward over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley then head northeast ward to the Tennessee Valley by
Friday evening.
The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast into parts
of the Tennessee Valley through Friday morning.  See the latest advisory
from the National Hurricane Center for the most up to date track and
intensity.

Meanwhile, a front over the Upper Great Lakes into Central Rockies will
slowly sweep eastward to the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the
Southern Plains by Friday evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Great Lakes westward into the Northern/Central Plains
that will move to the Northeast to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern
Plains by Friday evening.  In addition, moist tropical air over the
Southeast/Southern Mid-Atlantic will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over the area through Friday evening into Saturday.

Elsewhere, upper-level energy over the Great Basin will move eastward to
the Southern High Plains by Friday evening.  The energy will start to
produce showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon into evening over
parts of the Central Rockies and Central/Southern High Plains that will
move into parts of the Southern Plains/Southern Rockies by Friday evening.
 Additionally, another area of upper-level energy over South-Central
Canada will move southeastward to the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley by Friday evening into Saturday.  The energy will produce rain
showers over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes
overnight Thursday into Friday evening. 

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2017, 01:10:09 PM »
Yowbarb Note -
Screen shot:
  Disturbance 1 - 80% Chance of Cyclone Formation, 5 days. 06-23-2017 NHC
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a with a broad area
of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression by late this
weekend or early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2017, 01:38:43 PM »
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tropical Depression Four 
...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING WESTWARD AND STILL NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...
5:00 PM AST Thu Jul 6
Location: 13.1°N 44.9°W
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2017, 01:50:39 PM »


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

Tropical Weather Outlook Text   Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized since
yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward at
about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #28 on: July 07, 2017, 03:34:35 PM »
"FOUR" out in the Atlantic fizzled out. The Remnant low pressure system has dissipated.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2017
« Reply #29 on: July 16, 2017, 11:22:11 AM »
It doesn't look like the powerful new hurricane, FERNANDA, will cause harm...Will have to look closer at projected path later on...
So far:
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND, None.
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc#Fernanda

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE FERNANDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 16
Location: 12.4°N 127.4°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 953 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph