Quake Prediction - Joe Montanna

[Yowbarb]

Here

Lost part of this topic when the new Town Hall got set up...
will get the info and re post.

This a merged Topic. Joe Montanna had set up a Quake Prediction Topic.
I had started an Earthquake Prediction Topic.
Members please post here any type of earthquake prediction method,
                                                              concept or
                                                              just ideas and
                                                              conjecture and even precognition are fine.
...
I had posted this a few months ago and it got lost:
Next Quake: Home page    http://www.nextearthquake.com/index.htm

Next Quake: Long term forecasts http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#longterm 

- Yowbarb

[Yowbarb]

Two more in the new moon period are predicted on the Nextquake site.
Hokkaido Japan and Honshu Japan.

Hokkaido,
Japan
within ?500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62
 M4.0-M6.0
expected about Jan 27+/-3 days
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Honshu Japan Southern Region
within ?500 km of a center ?248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040
 M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 21+/-3 days

...

[Yowbarb]

Nextquake site predicted several (the majority of predictions come true)
Here's the two Japan ones: Original predctions posted below the actual events.
- Yowbarb

M4.6
      92%
 20th January 2010
Lat 34.95 Lon 139.50
39 km SW of Yokosuka, Near East Coast of Honshu
(EMSC source)
forecast 13 days ahead
=========================================================
Honshu Japan
Southern Region
within ?500 km of a center ?248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040
 M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 21+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

M4.9
      98%     
 22nd January 2010
Lat 42.483 Lon 148.855
370 km E of Kushiro, Off the Coast of Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source)
forecast 15 days ahead
 
===========================================================

Hokkaido,
Japan
within ?500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62
 M4.0-M6.0
expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)
 
============================================================
 

[Yowbarb]

5.9 er off the N. CA coast yesterday -

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100204/ap_on_re_us/us_california_coast_earthquake

Fits within the parameters of the Nextquake prediction:

Nth California & Sth Oregon
Coast & Off Coast
within 400 km of
Crescent City, California
Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20
 M3.0-M5.0
expected about Feb 9+/-3 days
(posted 0335 hours 25th Jan)
      M5.9
      68%
4th February 2010
Lat 40.431 Lon -124.929
56 km WNW of Petrolia, CA
(USGS source)
forecast 10 days ahead
 
http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#earthquakes_top


====================

[Yowbarb]

About 1 AM eastern time more quakes in Japan -China region. Data listed before.

This Nextquake.com site has been predicting quakes in Japan and China (as well as other places) in this full moon time frame.  Listing a couple of them that happened very recently:
USGS
MAP  6.4   2010/02/07 06:10:00    23.472    123.713  16.5   SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
MAP 6.6 2010/02/07 06:10:04 23.400 124.000 10.0 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN


==============================================================
Table 26b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period
from January 30 - February 13* 2010

http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#longterm

Note: At least one of the two quakes in that region are in the radius of the circle described at Nextquake.com
which was
Taiwan Region
Newly defined
within 225 km of a center
near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763  Lon 121.689
 

 

[Yowbarb]

- ALSO -

  4.8   2010/02/06 11:46:41    32.690    140.540  63.2   IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

this fits in with the longitude latitude magnitude and dates of the prediction,

Honshu Japan
Southern Region
within ?500 km of a center ?248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040

[Yowbarb]

http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm

This is the best link to go right to the predictions. Scroll way down.
- Yowbarb

[Yowbarb]

I think Dr. RJ Robert Phd may have nailed a few more predictions. Cuba and Taiwan and Crete maybe others. Will check and see if the latest quakes fell within the perameters of his predictions - in the same range of latitudes.
Cuba was about midnight eastern time.
 

[Yowbarb]

Looks like Dr. Robert is not claiming the Cuba quake as one he predicted although it was not that far away. His Caribbean -Puerto Rico prediction came true. Note: That was a different quake.

http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm

I did a quick tally for his prediction for the Full Moon period, January 20 through Feb 13 -although the time period is not yet done.
Out of some 34 predictions, 19 were close enough, within the data and circumference he had stated, to be accurate. Note: Several quakes he did not claim as having been predicted by him were nonetheless in the same region and within a couple days of the timeframe he presented.
(Hope I'm right here, so far he has about 56% right and the time is not up.)
IMHO he is worth listening to.
We are either going into a quiet time now or a gawd awful one soon.

- Yowbarb

[Yowbarb]

California
'Southern' M4.1
 
within only 160 km of
Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at
Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484   M2.7-M4.7
expected asbout Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0124 hours 20th Jan)        M4.1           13th February 2010
Lat 34.012 Lon -117.168
5 km S of Redlands and
100 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source)
forecast 24 days ahead
 

[Yowbarb]

I just saw these
happened about 9 PM last night. These are about 60 mi inland from L.A.
There have been a few more quakes in the past two days south and east of these ones. Probably not much in damage etc. Yowbarb
==================================================================
2.5   2010/02/13 22:09:03    34.008   -117.185  7.5   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
MAP  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/245_35.php

2.5   2010/02/13 21:54:40    34.010   -117.189  5.0   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
MAP 
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/ci10542117.php

4.1   2010/02/13 21:39:07    34.004   -117.180  8.9   GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
MAP http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/245_35.php

This time frame and range of coordinates was in a
prediction by Nextquake.com

[Yowbarb]

Dr. RJ Robert has a new table up now
Table 27a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

                                  from February 14-28* 2010
http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#longterm

[Lori]

Haiti may be in for it again.   

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/02/haiti-earthquake-only-moved-half-the-fault/1

Haiti earthquake only moved half the fault
12:06 PM


Geologists say beleaguered Haiti may still be waiting for the other shoe to drop, seismologically speaking. Analysis of high-resolution radar images shows that only half of the Enriquillo fault ruptured in the Jan. 12 quake that devastated the island nation's capital.

Cont above link

[Yowbarb]

I think Dr. RJ Roberts might have got this prediction right. We'll see if he counts it.

Dr. Robert's prediction:
Sumatra Southern Region
within ?500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14
 M4.0-M6.0
expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0135 hours 23rd Feb)
http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#longterm

...............
Now here is the
USGS data:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010tlbk.php
6.5 offshore Indonesia
4.032

[Yowbarb]

28 out of the 36 quakes Dr. Roberts predicted have come true, and the prediction time period is not quite over yet.
March 15 UTC.
[link to www.nextearthquake.com]

These two just got updated on his site:

Sumatra
Northern Region
within 500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67 M3.8-M5.8
expected about Mar 9+/-3 days (posted 0135 hours 23rd Feb) M5.7 84% 13th March 2010
Lat 1.301 Lon 97.139
305 km SSW of Medan, Nias Region, Indonesia
(USGS source)
forecast 18 days ahead

Sumatra
Southern Region
within 500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14 M4.0-M6.0
expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0135 hours 23rd Feb) M6.5 77%* 5th March 2010
Lat -4.032 Lon 100.806
165 km W of Bengkulu,
Southwest of Sumatra (USGS source)
forecast 10 days ahead