http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/WTPS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 149.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 149.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0S 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.9S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.9S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.8S 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.9S 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.8S 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.4S 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 148.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE AS IT CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS A
POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TC
18P IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS. THE STR WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE THE STEERING
PATTERN AND DRIVE TC NATHAN ON A SOLID WESTWARD TRACK. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TC 18P TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AND CROSSING CAPE YORK PENINSULA. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL
CAUSE DEGRADATION BUT NATHAN WILL EMERGE IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
AS A 50-KNOT SYSTEM, RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY
LANDFALL OVER CAPE ARNHEM BEFORE TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
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