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Author Topic: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas  (Read 95301 times)

Yowbarb

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Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #210 on: January 12, 2016, 02:01:37 PM »
I meant to post this late Sunday night...
...
http://www.spaceweather.com/

THE STORM STARTED EARLY: We were expecting a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) to hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 12th. It might have arrived a day early. "Here in Inari, Finland, strong auroras appeared on Jan. 11th," reports Rayann Elzein, who photographed a magnificent green outburst over the snowy Lapland:

Auroras
Taken by Rayann Elzein on January 11, 2016 @ Inari, Lapland, Finland

http://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=121757&PHPSESSID=td915artnitn51lkajf80ba163

Yowbarb

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Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #211 on: January 21, 2016, 09:44:58 PM »
G2 Geomagnetic level storm recently. G1 (minor) predicted.
...

http://www.spaceweather.com/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #212 on: February 02, 2016, 09:56:48 PM »
Yowbarb Note: There was a G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm recently. Conditions are unsettled and another G1 is expected in the next 24 hours.
...
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #213 on: February 16, 2016, 07:39:07 AM »
http://www.spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: Earth is entering a stream of high-speed solar wind, and this is causing G1-class geomagetic storms around the Arctic Circle on Feb. 16th. This is not the CME we have been waiting for since Valentine's Day. Instead, the solar wind is flowing from a coronal hole on the sun

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/  NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 07:49:26 AM by Yowbarb »

Yowbarb

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MadMax

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Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #215 on: March 12, 2016, 05:19:46 PM »

The “Lame Stream Media” is FINALLY waking up to how close we can back in 2012 and what it might have meant to planet earth (not just us “tinfoil hat conspiracy types””):


Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/


July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news.

Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.

"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado…

Baker, along with colleagues from NASA and other universities, published a seminal study of the storm in the December 2013 issue of the journal Space Weather.  Their paper, entitled "A major solar eruptive event in July 2012," describes how a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) tore through Earth orbit on July 23, 2012.  Fortunately Earth wasn't there.  Instead, the storm cloud hit the STEREO-A spacecraft.

"I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did," says Baker.  "If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire. :o

Extreme solar storms pose a threat to all forms of high-technology.  They begin with an explosion--a "solar flare"—in the magnetic canopy of a sunspot.  X-rays and extreme UV radiation reach Earth at light speed, ionizing the upper layers of our atmosphere; side-effects of this "solar EMP" include radio blackouts and GPS navigation errors. Minutes to hours later, the energetic particles arrive.  Moving only slightly slower than light itself, electrons and protons accelerated by the blast can electrify satellites and damage their electronics. Then come the CMEs, billion-ton clouds of magnetized plasma that take a day or more to cross the Sun-Earth divide.  Analysts believe that a direct hit by an extreme CME such as the one that missed Earth in July 2012 could cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket.  Most people wouldn't even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps.

Before July 2012, when researchers talked about extreme solar storms their touchstone was the iconic Carrington Event of Sept. 1859, named after English astronomer Richard Carrington who actually saw the instigating flare with his own eyes.  In the days that followed his observation, a series of powerful CMEs hit Earth head-on with a potency not felt before or since.  Intense geomagnetic storms ignited Northern Lights as far south as Cuba and caused global telegraph lines to spark, setting fire to some telegraph offices and thus disabling the 'Victorian Internet."
image
A report by the National Academy of Sciences details the consequences of extreme solar storms. More

A similar storm today could have a catastrophic effect. According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers damaged by such a storm might take years to repair.

"In my view the July 2012 storm was in all respects at least as strong as the 1859 Carrington event," says Baker. "The only difference is, it missed."

In February 2014, physicist Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc. published a paper in Space Weather entitled "On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events."  In it, he analyzed records of solar storms going back 50+ years.  By extrapolating the frequency of ordinary storms to the extreme, he calculated the odds that a Carrington-class storm would hit Earth in the next ten years.

The answer: 12%.

"Initially, I was quite surprised that the odds were so high, but the statistics appear to be correct," says Riley.  "It is a sobering figure


In his study, Riley looked carefully at a parameter called Dst, short for "disturbance – storm time." This is a number calculated from magnetometer readings around the equator. Essentially, it measures how hard Earth's magnetic field shakes when a CME hits. The more negative Dst becomes, the worse the storm.  Ordinary geomagnetic storms, which produce Northern Lights around the Arctic Circle, but otherwise do no harm, register Dst=-50 nT (nanoTesla).  The worst geomagnetic storm of the Space Age, which knocked out power across Quebec in March 1989, registered Dst=-600 nT. Modern estimates of Dst for the Carrington Event itself range from -800 nT to a staggering -1750 nT.

In their Dec. 2013 paper, Baker et al. estimated Dst for the July 2012 storm. "If that CME had hit Earth, the resulting geomagnetic storm would have registered a Dst of -1200, comparable to the Carrington Event and twice as bad as the March 1989 Quebec blackout."

The reason researchers know so much about the July 2012 storm is because, out of all the spacecraft in the solar system it could have hit, it did hit a solar observatory.  STEREO-A is almost ideally equipped to measure the parameters of such an event.

If Riley's work holds true, there is a 12% chance we will learn a lot more about extreme solar storms in the next 10 years—when one actually strikes Earth.

Says Baker, "we need to be prepared."


Stay safe,
Max.


MadMax

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #216 on: March 12, 2016, 05:38:08 PM »
I didn't see this website mentioned its a GREAT resource: ;D

http://www.spaceweathernews.com

Max.

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #217 on: March 13, 2016, 03:11:23 AM »
I didn't see this website mentioned its a GREAT resource: ;D

http://www.spaceweathernews.com

Max.

max, thanks for posting. Often I post a solar update during the day and it is from Spaceweather.com.

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #218 on: March 13, 2016, 03:28:35 AM »
At the moment no Geomagnetic Storms going on. This should change the the 16th.
...


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
...................................................................................................
http://www.spaceweather.com/

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 16th when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind streams. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing density gradients and shock waves that do a good job of sparking auroras

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #219 on: March 13, 2016, 11:12:49 PM »
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Brief Outage Expected on 3/10 and 3/14

published: Saturday, March 12, 2016 13:05 UTC

On Thursday, March 10, 2016, SWPC will transfer its operations to its off-site backup system to support building maintenance.  Users will see a brief outage while we transition to our backup system and then again when we transition back to Boulder on Monday, March 14, 2016.  The transition to our backup system is currently scheduled to occur at 1600 UTC (9:00 am MST) on March 10 and the transition back will occur at 1500 UTC (9:00 MDT) on March 14

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #220 on: March 17, 2016, 03:51:14 AM »
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming Observed
 published:   Thursday, March 17, 2016 06:17 UTC   

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed at 16/2246 UTC (6:46 PM Eastern), at 17/0222 UTC (10:22 PM Eastern), and again at 17/0549 UTC (1:49 AM Eastern) due to continued coronal hole high-speed stream influence. There is a G1 Warning valid until 17/0900 UTC (5:00 AM Eastern) as activity is expected to persist overnight in the North American night time sector.

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #221 on: April 02, 2016, 07:49:06 AM »
http://www.spaceweather.com/

WEEKEND STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of G2-class geomagnetic storms on April 2nd when a CIR is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs (co-rotating interaction regions) are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving solar wind streams. Density gradients and shock waves inside CIRs often do a good job sparking auroras

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/   G2 predicted

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #222 on: April 02, 2016, 06:44:02 PM »
G2 Geomagnetic  Storm already happened. A G1 is predicted for sometime today.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/   

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #223 on: April 12, 2016, 06:23:29 PM »
G1 storms today, ongoing and more to come

http://www.spaceweather.com/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Geomagnetic Warnings, Topic in Honor of Ed Douglas
« Reply #224 on: April 15, 2016, 12:26:23 AM »
G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm earlier today (Thursday.)

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

 

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