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Author Topic: Hurricane Season 2019  (Read 3607 times)

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #60 on: October 18, 2019, 08:32:14 PM »
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-nestor-may-wreak-havoc-on-many-top-25-college-football-clashes/604453

Tropical Storm Nestor may wreak havoc on many Top 25 college football clashes
By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Oct. 18, 2019 2:33 PM
As Tropical Storm Nestor in the Gulf of Mexico gears up to lash the Southeast, multiple top-tier college football teams are preparing to play crucial games in whatever elements the system may throw at them.

No. 9 Florida at South Carolina - Saturday at 12:00 p.m. EDT

As Nestor moves its way up the Southeast, its drenching rains will impact the SEC clash in Columbia, South Carolina.

Rain is expected to pick up in the area throughout the day, and some of the rain can be heavy, AccuWeather meteorologists said. This will create a heightened risk of foot slips and fumbles on either side of the ball and will require fans to bring along necessary rain gear such as ponchos and umbrellas.

South Carolina is looking to repeat their successes from last week, when the Gamecocks upset then-3rd ranked Georgia in overtime. Should this week's game come down to field goals once again, a stiff east-northeast wind with gusts whipping over 30 mph could make kick attempts more difficult.

Kentucky at No. 10 Georgia - Saturday at 6:00 p.m. EDT

While tailgates and earlier portions of the game be impacted by winds and rain from Nestor, the cool weather is likely to have the largest impact on the SEC matchup. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said periods of rain and gusty winds should be expected.

The temperature is expected to hover in the 50s F for most of the game, but the AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature could fall as low down to the lower 40s F in Athens.

Tennessee at No. 1 Alabama - Saturday at 9:00 p.m. EDT

The top team in the nation, Alabama, will host the Volunteers on Saturday night, with kickoff likely to come after rain from Nestor will have already doused the Tuscaloosa area.

Cloudy skies will remain overheard for the game with a light wind blowing at 10 mph. The temperature will hover in the lower 60s with similar AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures.

No. 12 Oregon at No. 25 Washington - Saturday at 12:30 p.m. PDT

Away from the Southeast and Nestor's influence, a Top 25 rivalry clash between the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies will likely be played throughout a constant drizzle. A storm system that could cause high-elevation snow in some areas of Washington will bring periods of rain throughout the day in Seattle before this Pac-12 game. AccuWeather meteorologists say that the wet weather could lead to increased threat for fumbles, dropped balls and foot slips.

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #61 on: October 19, 2019, 08:41:11 PM »

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19
Location: 30.4°N 84.1°W
Moving: NE at 23 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Barb note: This is Friday night's forecast, not sure yet exactly what did happen...NESTOR is now a Post-Tropical Cyclone
...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/al16/al162019.public_a.006.shtml?

On the forecast track,
the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on
Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the
southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it
becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore
of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late
Sunday.

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #62 on: October 19, 2019, 09:46:58 PM »
Yowbarb Note:

"Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor has moved inland over the Florida
Panhandle as of 19/2100, centered near 30.4N 84.1W."
  from the Atlantic Tropical Weather discussion below.
...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor has moved inland over the Florida
Panhandle as of 19/2100, centered near 30.4N 84.1W.
Nestor is
moving to the NE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
No deep convection is seen within 270 nm of the center. However,
scattered showers are along the eastern Gulf coast. The deeper
convection (scattered moderate to isolated strong) is seen inland
over portion of the SE. On the forecast track, the center of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the
southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is
expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the
western Atlantic by late Sunday. Gale-force winds are expected to
develop this evening in relation to Nestor over the west Atlantic
waters mainly north of 29.5N and west of 78W. These conditions
will continue through early Sunday morning. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or
the website hurricanes.gov for more details. For more information
about the Gale Warning, refer to the High Seas Forecast product,
under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from
14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave axis south of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N38W to
00N40W, moving W around 10 kt. This position corresponds well with
where the models indicate the 700 mb trough axis. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is seen from 04N-14N between 34W-41W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 69W
from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Most recent ASCAT pass
continues to depict a surface trough with this wave. Scattered
moderate showers are seen from 11N-19N between 65W-73W and the
coast of Venezuela, Colombia, Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage and
Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N29W to 05N37W, then continues W of a tropical wave from
04N42W to 05N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves described above, scattered moderate convection are along 380
nm N of the ITCZ between 33W-36W. Scattered showers are also off
Africa from 03N-10N, east of 09W-13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Post-tropical cyclone Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section above for details.

A cold front extends SW from Nestor to 27N87W. A warm front
extends from Nestor to Tallahassee Florida. A 1010 mb surface
high pressure is located in the western Gulf of Mexico near
26N92W keeping fair weather for central and western Gulf.
ASCAT imagery show fresh to strong southerly wind ahead of the
front along the eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection
extends from near Key West to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Nestor will move quickly across the SE U.S. this evening through
Sun and emerge over water across coastal North Carolina late Sun
afternoon
and move ENE across the W Atlc Mon and Tue. Marine
conditions will improve rapidly across the NE Gulf tonight through
Sun as Nestor moves off to the NE. A cold front will reach the NW
Gulf Mon night, then extend across the basin from northern
Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level ridging and relatively dry air cover much of the
western portion of the Caribbean. The exception is in the Yucatan
Channel, where scattered moderate convection is seen north of 21N
and east of 87W. ASCAT shows fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan
Channel, as well as in the NW Caribbean north of 17N between 83W-
87W. Moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean,
except for locally fresh near the tropical wave along 69W. In the
SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered
moderate showers over Colombia, eastern Panama, and the Caribbean
waters.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the basin
through Wed night. Fresh S to SE winds across the Yucatan Channel
will gradually diminish Sun as Tropical Storm Nestor accelerates
NE and exits the Gulf of Mexico. An active tropical wave along 70W
will move W and reach the western Caribbean by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic north of
29.5N and west of 78W beginning this evening due to Post-
Tropical Cyclone Nestor. See section above for details. A warm
front extends from Nestor to Tallahassee Florida to 31N81W to
28N76W. See Special Features section above for description of
convection.

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 25N68W and transition to
a stationary front to 25N71W. A large mid-upper level trough digs
southward from the mid-latitudes to about 28N along 52W. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms are seen from 25N-31N between 47W-54W.
Farther E, a surface trough is seen 19N33W to 26N31W associated to
an upper level low enhancing showers and tstorms north of the trough.

A weak cold front extends from 26.5N65W to 25N72W and will shift
E of the area late tonight. Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor over the
Florida Panhandle near 30.4N 84.1W at 2100 UTC will move NE across
the SE United States this weekend. Nestor will generate minimal
gale force S to SW winds north of 29.5N over the NW Atlc coastal
waters this evening. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area
Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida
Tue evening.

$$
MMTorres
...
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif 

Atlantic Wide View GeoColor –  Animated GIF
...

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2019, 09:03:31 PM »
2019 Atlantic hurricane season began on
Monday, May 20
and ends on
Saturday, November 30

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022304
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2019, 09:04:15 PM »
2019 Pacific hurricane season began on
Tuesday, June 25
and ends on
Saturday, November 30

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #65 on: November 18, 2019, 08:56:49 PM »
Yowbarb Note: This thing is starting to show signs of organization, thankfully it already looks like it will (NOT) it the southeastern US.

If it does hit anywhere, looks like it would be the northeastern US.
...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

screen shot:  Disturbance 1, moving NW 7 PM EST Nov 18, 2019

R.R. Book

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #66 on: November 19, 2019, 05:38:41 AM »
It's way too cold for hurricanes here now, as we're well below freezing at night time.  The only kind of "hurricane" that would be possible in such frigid temps would be a Nor'easter out of Canada, which we can do without!  :P

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #67 on: December 01, 2019, 01:06:20 PM »
 ;D

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #68 on: December 01, 2019, 07:03:48 PM »
Atlantic Hurricane Season is over.

MEANWHILE:   CARIBBEAN SEA... excerpt

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/012343_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is inhibiting
deep convection. A stationary front over the central Atlantic
extends SW into the U.S. Virgin Islands enhancing scattered
showers in the area. Some scattered showers are present from
the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean


Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #69 on: December 01, 2019, 07:07:21 PM »
Quote: "This year marks the fourth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season."

Active 2019 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/active-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season-comes-to-end

Active 2019 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end
Stretch of consecutive above-normal seasons continues


November 26, 2019   The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends on November 30, was marked by tropical activity that churned busily from mid-August through October.

The season produced 18 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three were “major” (Category 3, 4 or 5). NOAA’s outlook called for 10-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes, and accurately predicted the overall activity of the season.

“During each and every hurricane season, thousands of workers across the federal government coordinate with NOAA to safeguard Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “From advanced warnings to business aid, the Department of Commerce stands ready to help Americans from a storm’s formation to long after its dissipation.”

This year marks the fourth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The only other period on record that produced four consecutive above-normal seasons was 1998-2001. Also this year, five tropical cyclones formed in the Gulf of Mexico, which ties a record with 2003 and 1957 for the most storms to form in that region. Of those, three — Barry, Imelda and Nestor — made landfall in the U.S.

“NOAA provided around-the-clock support to communities before, during and after each tropical weather threat,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “The expertise of our forecasters, coupled with upgrades like those to the Global Forecast System model and our next-generation environmental satellites, helped NOAA and its partners save lives and protect property all season long.”

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #70 on: December 01, 2019, 07:12:57 PM »
Continued:

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/active-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season-comes-to-end

Active 2019 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end

...The three major hurricanes this season were Dorian, Humberto and Lorenzo. Hurricane Dorian is tied with three other hurricanes — the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert and 2005’s Hurricane Wilma — as the second strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin in terms of wind (185 mph). In all, four storms made landfall in the U.S. during the 2019 season: Barry, Dorian, Imelda and Nestor.

“This season’s activity ramped up in mid-August during the normal peak of the season, as we predicted,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The above-normal activity is consistent with the ongoing high-activity era, driven largely by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which entered a warm phase in 1995. Conditions that favored more, stronger, and longer-lasting storms this year included a stronger West African monsoon, warmer Atlantic waters, and weak vertical wind shear across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.”

An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

 

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