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Author Topic: TOR: CON Index Western US  (Read 2977 times)

Yowbarb

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TOR: CON Index Western US
« on: April 27, 2011, 02:47:14 PM »
The Weather channel Home page:  http://www.weather.com/

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/torcon-daily-forecast_2011-03-24

TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index


 by Dr. Greg Forbes, Tornado Expert

What is the TOR:CON Index?

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8: High probability of a tornado
 

6: Moderate possibility of a tornado
 

4: Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible


2: Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible


0: Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm


Updated: April 27, 2011 12:30 pm ET

Developed by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook)The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.


Forecast for Wednesday, April 27

AL north and central- 9
AL south - 5
AR east - 4
DC - 2 to 3
DE - 2
FL west panhandle - 4 to 5
FL east panhandle - 4 night
GA northwest - 8
GA west-central and northeast - 6
GA central and south - 4 night
IL extreme south - 2 to 3
IN south and east-central - 4
KY east - 6
KY west and central - 4
LA northeast and southeast- 3 to 4
MD - 2 to 3
MO bootheel - 2
MS northwest and southeast - 5
MS east -central and northeast- 9
MS west-central - 6
NC west - 6
NC central and northeast - 3 to 4
NC southeast - 3 night
NY west and central -  3
OH south - 5
OH north - 3 to 4
PA - 3
SC west - 6
SC central and east - 4 night
TN middle - 6
TN west - 4 to 5
TN east - 8
VA - 3 to 4
WV  - 5
 

Forecast for Thursday, April 28

CT west - 2 to 3
DC - 2 to 3
DE -- 2 to 3
FL north and central peninsula - 2 to 3
GA southeast - 3
NJ - 3
MA west - 2 to 3
NC east - 4
NC central - 3
NY central and east - 2 to 3
MD - 2 to 3
PA east half - 2 to 3
SC east half - 4
VA southeast - 4
VA central - 2 to 3
VT  - 2 to 3

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/torcon-daily-forecast_2011-03-24
« Last Edit: April 27, 2011, 02:52:15 PM by Yowbarb »

Yowbarb

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Re: TOR: CON Index Western US
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2012, 07:25:26 AM »
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-severe/severe-weather-tracker

The Weather Channel's Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (On Facebook | On Twitter) developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area. What is TOR:CON?

Play Video: 
http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/storms-42/tornadoes-203/what-is-torcon-17193
Latest Forecast for Severe Weather
TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+ High probability of a tornado
6 - Moderate possibility of a tornado
4 - Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10.  Multiply the value by 10 to get your chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location.  For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location (for example, southern Kansas).

Friday, June 15

CO east half - 3
IA west, north - 2 or less
KS west - 3
KS north-central, northeast - 2 or less
MN southeast - 2 or less
MO extreme northeast - 2 or less
ND southwest - 3
NE west - 3
NE rest - 2 or less
NM east - 2
OK panhandle - 2 to 3
SD west - 3
TX west - 2
WI southwest, east-central - 2 or less
WY east - 3
Other areas – 1 or less

Saturday, June 16

CO southeast - 3
CO rest of east half - 2

IA southwest, central, east - 2 to 3
IL northwest - 2
KS southwest, central, northeast - 4
MI upper - 2
MN east - 2 to 3
MO northwest - 3
NE southeast - 2
NM south, east - 2 or less
OK panhandle - 3
TX north panhandle - 3
TX west - 2

WI - 2 to 3
WY extreme southeast - 2
Other areas - 1 or less

.............
« Last Edit: June 15, 2012, 07:27:09 AM by Yowbarb »

 

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