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Author Topic: The Solar Grand Minimum  (Read 5917 times)

MadMax

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Re: The Solar Grand Minimum
« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2018, 03:17:29 PM »
Grand solar minimum: Data shows this is the lowest cycle since records began!!

https://www.sott.net/article/390583-Grand-solar-minimum-Data-shows-this-is-the-lowest-cycle-since-records-began

We have only 300 years-odd of detailed solar observations with telescopes, half that of magnetic records, half again in the radio spectrum and less than that for most modern instrument records (and 12 years of Watts Up With That to interpret it). So as the months pass our knowledge of solar activity is still growing appreciably. The evidence points to a major transition of activity in 2006 which has returned us to the solar conditions of the 19th century. 19th century-type climate is expected to follow.


We now have 70 years of F10.7 data. The F10.7 flux is considered to be the most accurate measure of solar activity. The solar cycles are numbered. Solar Cycle 24 has about two years to go before the month of minimum. To date the F10.7 flux has had a floor of 64.


The interplanetary magnetic field has been in a downtrend since the early 1980s with the last three solar minima lining up. If this trend continues then it will get down to a monthly average of 2.8 in 2020 at the 24/25 minimum.

We now have 150 years of daily aa Index data. This is a geomagnetic index of the Sun's magnetic activity. This graph explains why the world warmed in the second half of the 20th century. In the 67 years of data up to 1935, the Sun's magnetic shield of the Earth averaged 15.7 on the aa Index. In the subsequent 71 years of the Modern Warm Period up to 2006, this shield was 50 per cent stronger, averaging 23.2 on the aa Index. Since 2006, the aa Index has been at Little Ice Age-like levels with an average of 15.8 and falling as we go further into the 24/25 solar minimum.

Cosmic rays are dominantly protons and helium atoms. They hit oxygen and nitrogen atoms in the upper atmosphere and cause a cascade of particles in the lower atmosphere which can be holding enough water for cloud droplet formation but lacks nucleation sites. The increased cloud cover during low solar acitivity increases the Earth's albedo and the atmosphere cools.

Max.
"Ignorance is Bliss" - (Agent Smith the first Matrix Movie)

MadMax

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Re: The Solar Grand Minimum
« Reply #31 on: September 01, 2018, 10:58:00 AM »
Earth's "Big Freeze" Looms As Sun Remains Devoid Of Sunspots For Most Of 2018

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-31/earths-big-freeze-looms-sun-remains-devoid-sunspots-most-2018

Scientists believe that Earth could experience a “big freeze” as the sun goes through what’s known as “solar minimum.” During this time, sunspots are minimal and the globe could be in for a wicked cold snap.

Scientists are reporting that the sun has been free of sunspots for a total of 133 days this year, according to The Express UK. With only 241 days of 2018 passing, that means the sun has been blank for the majority of the year. Experts continue to warn that this is a sign that the solar minimum is on its way.

 “The sun is spotless again. For the 133rd day this year, the face of the sun is blank,” wrote the website Space Weather.

“Solar minimum has returned, bringing extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the sun’s atmosphere, and strangely pink auroras,” the website continued.

The sun follows a cycle of roughly 11 years where it reaches a solar maximum and then a solar minimum.

During a solar maximum, the sun gives off more heat and solar particles and is littered with sunspots. Less heat in a solar minimum is due to a decrease in the sun’s magnetic waves.  Our sun was not expected to head into a solar minimum until around 2020, but it appears to be heading in that direction a little early which could prove to be bad news for warm weather lovers.


But a prolonged solar minimum could mean a “mini ice age.” The last time there was a prolonged solar minimum, it did, in fact, lead to a mini ice-age which was scientifically known as the Maunder minimum.  That little cold snap lasted for 70 years between the years 1645 and 1715. During this period, temperatures dropped globally by 1.3 degrees Celsius leading to shorter seasons and ultimately food shortages.

Max.
"Ignorance is Bliss" - (Agent Smith the first Matrix Movie)

R.R. Book

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Re: The Solar Grand Minimum
« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2018, 06:18:32 AM »
On October 15, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released its winter fuel price forecast:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/winterfuels.php

Heating oil is expected to cost 20% more during the coming winter than it cost last winter.  This is largely due to a significant drop in inventories because a larger share is being exported overseas for expanding industrial use.  So in order to fuel factories elsewhere, there will be people turning down their thermostats here in order to afford their fuel bills.

Natural gas and electrical heat are also expected to experience more moderate price increases, though NG inventories are low and prices could spike later.

Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast)
              
                 Base case
                  forecast     If 10% warmer
                                  than forecast    If 10% colder
                                                        than forecast

Heating Oil    20%              7%           33%
Natural Gas    5%              -4%          16%
Propane        -1%              -17%        15%
Electricity       3%              -2%           9%

« Last Edit: October 23, 2018, 11:25:11 AM by R.R. Book »

 

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