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Author Topic: Disease Outbreaks  (Read 10718 times)

R.R. Book

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #105 on: February 09, 2020, 10:47:05 AM »
The devastating toll of Novel Coronavirus on China is shutting down factories and affecting its global pharmaceutical industry, which is now beginning to be felt around the world.  Ice Age Farmer reports that since the vast majority of our drugs are manufactured in China, unprecedented shortages are beginning to be experienced here in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Christian, the channel's host, shares that the medical system in the States in some respects already is grinding to a halt, with a lack of availability of heparin causing 60% of heart surgeries to be postponed indefinitely.

Antibiotics are also becoming scarce, meaning that many infections may not be treatable by allopathy.  Case in point is doxycycline.  This means that once-treatable illnesses that had been brought under control by the medical establishment may begin spreading at a time when global pandemics are reaching our shores.

Time to stock up on alternatives...


« Last Edit: February 10, 2020, 04:29:26 AM by R.R. Book »

MadMax

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #106 on: February 09, 2020, 12:40:39 PM »
Exiled Chinese Billionaire Claims 1.5 Million Infected With Coronavirus, 50,000 Dead!!
  :o

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/were-totally-dark-japan-not-doing-enough-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers


Summary:

    Virus death toll surpasses SARS (total: 813)
    Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected
    New cases confirmed in UK, Spain, Singapore
    Passengers aboard 'Diamond Princess' warn authorities aren't doing enough to protect them - and others
    Officials in Shenzen say they won't block Foxxconn factory reopening
    Cruise ship quarantined in Hong Kong allowed to leave after 4 days

* * *

Update (1300ET): A lot of epidemiologists and 'citizen journalists' have been throwing out numbers that they believe to be the true accurate counts of the number of people infected with the Wuhan coronavirus in China, as well as the true death toll.

But exiled Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui said Sunday, citing leaked information out of Wuhan, that the death toll could be as high as 50,000, as Chinese officials burn bodies to cover up the true extent of the crisis.

    1.5 million chinese infected with #coronavirus.

    50,000 cremated.pic.twitter.com/ckNPD1pyNX
    — Darren of Plymouth 🇬🇧 (@DarrenPlymouth) February 9, 2020

This isn't the first time we've heard about the regime burning bodies, rather, it's one of those 'conspiracy theories' that grows more credible every day.

One reporter from the Epoch Times shared this map earlier showing the sulfur dioxide content in the air spiking over Wuhan.

    數據網站https://t.co/DdLAqVN3UF的數字顯示,#武漢 地區的二氧化硫含量遠高於其他地區,而這通常是由在機物的焚燒所引起的……#武汉肺炎 疫情中,到底死了多少人了? https://t.co/zjYj39M3eY
    — 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 9, 2020


Wengui  also said he has information showing 1.5 million confirmed coronavirus cases in China. To be sure, this would contradict the theory that the ~3,000 or so new cases confirmed every day in China reflects restrictions on the supply of tests.

50,000 deaths would be an incredible thing to cover up...but then again, this outbreak is the without a doubt the greatest crisis of cinfidence faced by the regime since the June 4th incident back in 1989.

* * *

Last night, we reported that Chengdu had been placed under strict lockdown, adding another 14.4 million Chinese to the 400 million+ already living under virtual house arrest across the country as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak that has already claimed more lives than SARS did during its nearly year-long run.

As it becomes increasingly clear that the outbreak is getting worse, not better, despite the supposed 'decline' in new cases (which is supposed to show that the state's heavy handed methods are working), the World Health Organization cautioned on Sunday against reading too much into those numbers, saying that Wuhan and Hubei remain in the middle of a "very serious outbreak."

Though we didn't need the New York Times to figure that out.  ;D

MadMax

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #107 on: February 09, 2020, 12:52:25 PM »
DO THE MATH: China holds “good news” press conference, accidentally admits the coronavirus mortality rate is closer to 17 per cent  :(

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-08-do-the-math-china-press-conference-admits-coronavirus-mortality-17-percent.html

Saturday, February 08, 2020 by: Mike Adams   
Tags: China, coronavirus, epidemic, infectious, MATH, mortality, outbreak, pandemic, recovery, Wuhan
10KViews
Image: DO THE MATH: China holds “good news” press conference, accidentally admits the coronavirus mortality rate is closer to 17 per cent

(Natural News) Although The Lancet published a recent study showing the coronavirus achieving a 15% death rate among those who are infected, the WHO, increasingly siding with communist China’s discredited “official” figures, claims the death rate is only 2%.

The same source, the WHO, also says “82 per cent of cases are mild.”

(Put on your math hat, because this article contains a lot of math. Fortunately it’s only about 7th grade math, so perhaps even CNN might be able to follow it.)

This means, of course, that 18% of coronavirus cases are either “serious” or “critical,” since those are the other two designations which are possible.

The percentage of people who survive those two designations is surprisingly low, according to China’s own official sources. The communist Chinese regime is trying to spin the very low survival rates as some sort of “good news,” not surprisingly. Here’s how the SCMP reported the spin:

Speaking at a press conference in Beijing, Wang Guoqiang, an infectious disease expert at Peking University No 1 Hospital, said that preliminary data about people who had recovered after being infected was promising.

Based on a small sample of discharged patients from Wuhan, the city at the centre of the outbreak, Wang said that about 6 per cent had recovered after being in a serious condition, while less than one per cent had recovered after being classed as in critical condition.

Only in China could a 6% survival rate for “serious” patients be considered good news. Similarly, a 1% survival rate for “critical” patients is also being spun as good news.


Nearly all patients in “serious” and “critical” conditions don’t recover

If you do the math, this means that 94% of patients in “serious” condition don’t recover, which means they die. Similarly, 99% of those in “critical” condition also die.

Out of every 100 infected people, we now know that 82 will be classified as “mild,” and we also know that 18 will be either “serious” or “critical,” but we’re not yet sure exactly how many will be “serious” vs. “critical.” For this investigation, we’ll have to estimate that. So we’ll be conservative and estimate that, out of the 100 original patients, 14 end up in serious condition and 4 in critical.

So here are our working numbers so far:

For every 100 infected people:

82 = Mild status
14 = Serious status
4 = Critical status

Now, let’s assume that 100% of the “mild” status patients survive. We also know, from Wang Guoqiang, above, the survival rates of those in “serious” or “critical” conditions:

Survival rates:

Mild status (82 / 100) = 100% survival
Serious status (14 / 100) = 6% survival
Critical status (4 / 100) = 1% survival

With these data outlined, then, what is the total number of deaths per 100 people who are infected?

To get the answer, we first calculate the number of survivors: (0.82 x 100) + (0.06 x 14) + (0.01 * 4) = 82 + 0.84 + 0.04 = 82.88

So we know there are 83 survivors out of every 100 infected patients.

That means there are 17 who do not survive (i.e. deaths). That’s another way of saying the mortality rate is 17%, by the way.  ???

Note carefully that this is almost entirely based on numbers coming out of China that the Chinese government is trying to spin as “good news.”

It’s also very consistent with the early study out of The Lancet that documented a 15% mortality rate among those who are infected. That study is found here:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

The WHO is trying to tell us that only 2% of infected people die, but the real numbers now look a lot closer to 15% – 17%, at least for anyone who can do math.

After just 10 generations of spreading, a virus with R0 of 1.5 will have infected only 58 people.

But a virus with R0 of 3.0 will have infected over 59,000 people.


Summary:

In summary, the real mortality rate from coronavirus infections, according to data released by the Chinese government in a “good news” press conference, is very probably in the range of 17%.

The Lancet had previously reported a mortality rate of 15%.

The “leaked” numbers of infections and deaths from China revealed a death rate of 16%.

We are starting to zero in on the reality of this virus, and it looks like 15% – 17% mortality rate is where this is going to settle. That’s a far cry from the 2% currently claimed by the communist Chinese regime and the clueless WHO bureaucrats who cover for the communists.

It’s easy to claim an artificially low death rate, of course, when you run an authoritarian regime that’s dispatching “cremation vans” on a 24/7 basis to dispose of all the dead bodies before they can be counted.

ilinda

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #108 on: February 09, 2020, 06:18:04 PM »
The devastating toll of Novel Coronavirus on China is shutting down factories and affecting its global pharmaceutical industry, which is now beginning to be felt around the world.  Ice Age Farmer reports that since the vast majority of our drugs are manufactured in China, unprecedented shortages are beginning to be experienced here in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Christian, the channel's host, shares that the medical system in the States in some respects already is grinding to a halt, with a lack of availability of heparin causing 60% of heart surgeries to be postponed indefinitely.

Antibiotics are also becoming scarce, meaning that many infections may not be treatable by allopathy.  Case in point is doxycycline.  This means that once-treatable illnesses that had been brought under control by the medical establishment may begin spreading at a time when global pandemics are reaching our shores.

Time to stock up on alternatives...


Besides stocking up on meds, those who grow food might be wise to also look to buying extra seeds.  Although few if any of us rely on China for seeds, the entire transportation infrastructure is probably going to be affected as seriously as the medical/healthcare industry, especially pharmaceuticals.

If the NovelCoronavirus continues to spread to, and throughout, other countries, as it has in China, not many people will want to venture out for shopping, entertainment, or whatever.  He brings up some important points in the video and it is certainly food for thought.

Interestingly, I did an experiment a couple of days ago, remembering how difficult it was a couple of years ago to find Vitamin C that was not made in China.  That was my first awareness of how much vitamin and medicine production has been moved to China.  I did find the Vitamin C, but sometimes use it for the goats and know it won't last.

 So a couple of days ago I harvested some pine branches and made "pine needle tea" for myself.  I was shocked that it was actually good, even without any added sweetener.  I don't know the amounts one needs to ingest,  but have read that pine needles have more vitamin C than oranges and other citrus fruits.  So iif you don't have citrus fruits or any food that is high in vitamin C, there is no need to buy the vitamin--just make pine needle tea to get the vitamin in its purely natural form. 
« Last Edit: February 10, 2020, 04:30:32 AM by R.R. Book »

R.R. Book

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #109 on: February 10, 2020, 04:21:13 AM »
Ilinda, does it matter whether the pine needles are green or brown?

ilinda

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #110 on: February 12, 2020, 12:38:15 PM »
Ilinda, does it matter whether the pine needles are green or brown?
Definitely green as I see it, because turning brown is an indication of the dying process.  Anything that retains the appearance it had when freshly harvested will have the highest Vit. C content. 

Also, one video reminded people that some trees have "pine" in their common name, but they are not true pines, such as Norfolk Pine, etc.  The only two I know about for sure are the White Pine and Shortleaf Pine.  There is a Red Pine which I believe is also a true pine.  One way, I think, to know for sure is if the scientific name begins with "Pinus", as Pinus echinata which is the name for shortleaf pine, then it's a genuine thing.  One video talked about some of the non-pines being toxic for humans to ingest.

MadMax

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #111 on: February 12, 2020, 04:26:25 PM »
China Reports Huge Jump In New Coronavirus Infections, Deaths; Stocks Tumble


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-hospital-admits-worker-who-tested-positive-coronavirus-treated-small-number

Summary:

    China's Hubei province admits a massive spike in virus cases and deaths (14,840 additional cases and 528 additional deaths)


Update (1855ET): Hubei just released its latest round of coronavirus outbreak figures, and in a stunning confirmation of the 'conspiracy theory' that China had altered the way it was reporting Covid-19 deaths and cases (in order to suggest that things were improving and you should buy stocks), Hubei province just came clean and the numbers are stunning.

And here is their explanation:

    With the deepening of understanding of new coronavirus pneumonia and the accumulation of experience in diagnosis and treatment, in view of the characteristics of the epidemic in Hubei Province, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the "Diagnosis and Treatment Plan for New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia (Trial (Version) "adds" clinical diagnosis "to the case diagnosis classification in Hubei Province, so that patients can receive standardized treatment according to confirmed cases as early as possible to further improve the success rate of treatment.

    According to the plan, Hubei Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to the new diagnosis classification. In order to be consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces across the country, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases for publication.



R.R. Book

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #112 on: February 13, 2020, 04:33:52 AM »
Max, I read the other day that the off-gassing from the crematoriums going 24/7 over there is so bad that it's now visible via satellite...

MadMax

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #113 on: February 13, 2020, 04:06:41 PM »
Why It's Too Late To Contain COVID-19  :(

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-its-too-late-contain-covid-19

While we may have reservations about Chinese data, there is no doubting they have done a sterling job in trying to contain the COVID-19 outbreak (as the new coronavirus symptoms are now known). However, it is not enough and we have now reached a point where it is impossible to contain. This piece looks at why.

China effectively shutting down its cities and adopting aggressive containment processes at a level never seen before has helped slow down the spread of COVID-19, but unfortunately it may now be too late as additional clusters appear around the world.


The infectivity rate, R0, is how many people one infected individual infects on average, for a given population. Factors such as herd immunity, climate etc can affect this, but so far we see around 2.5 people per infected person which means it spreads aggressively. We are perhaps also seeing evidence of superspreaders like SARS. For reasons we do not fully understand, most SARS carriers did not get other people sick. Some infected 50 or more.

Aside from concerns over severe cases flooding ICUs, with a higher apparent severity case than most, the main factor that is concerning about COVID-19 has been the long incubation period and asymptomatic transmission through proximity alone, something we haven't really seen before.

In conclusion, the likely secondary incubation points and limited policy response of LMICs means we should expect waves of coronavirus and focus not on shutting our borders and damaging global trade, but on bulking our treatment and care responses.

R.R. Book

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #114 on: February 13, 2020, 05:42:30 PM »
I thought the article was a bit presumptuous in saying that lower and middle income people have poorer hygiene...

Poorer than whose I wonder? 

The lower and middle income classes comprise most of the world, and being poor does not necessarily consign one to being dirty, unless outright homeless. 

Yes the poorest of the world are often malnourished, as well as often lacking in access to medicine, education, and other opportunities.  But I have observed some decent basic sanitation and water purification facilities in underdeveloped nations that are well thought-out, and don't involve flush toilets which send waste into the water supply.

Perhaps the author was writing from the perspective of the 1%?
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 09:06:09 AM by R.R. Book »

Yowbarb

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #115 on: February 14, 2020, 02:49:58 AM »
47 minutes ago:

https://www.ft.com/content/758fc319-0724-32f6-b496-05a458be72a4


   Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/758fc319-0724-32f6-b496-05a458be72a4

Coronavirus latest: More than 1,700 doctors infected in China as total cases breach 60,000

Almost 65,000 people have been diagnosed with Covid-19, the new coronavirus strain, worldwide. In China, more than 1,700 doctors have been infected as they try to contain the outbreak and treat sick patients.

Data experts battle to map path of coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus not genetically engineered in Wuhan lab, says expert
Two-thirds of Chinese airlines’ planes grounded over
coronavirus
Global shipping market reels from coronavirus
Coronavirus hits global tourism industry as Chinese stay home

...
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228165&ecd=mnl_day_021320

Coronavirus Cases, Deaths Rise Sharply, While 2 New Cases Reported in U.S.

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #116 on: February 14, 2020, 02:50:33 AM »
47 minutes ago:

https://www.ft.com/content/758fc319-0724-32f6-b496-05a458be72a4

Coronavirus latest: More than 1,700 doctors infected in China as total cases breach 60,000

Almost 65,000 people have been diagnosed with Covid-19, the new coronavirus strain, worldwide. In China, more than 1,700 doctors have been infected as they try to contain the outbreak and treat sick patients.

Data experts battle to map path of coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus not genetically engineered in Wuhan lab, says expert
Two-thirds of Chinese airlines’ planes grounded over
coronavirus
Global shipping market reels from coronavirus
Coronavirus hits global tourism industry as Chinese stay home

...
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228165&ecd=mnl_day_021320

Coronavirus Cases, Deaths Rise Sharply, While 2 New Cases Reported in U.S.
[/quote]

MadMax

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #117 on: February 15, 2020, 04:22:02 PM »
I think we are in for a MUCH worse time with this than anyone has possibly imagined ..

Hubei Doctors Warn Of Even-Deadlier Coronavirus Reinfection Causing Sudden Heart Attacks!!  :o

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/hubei-doctors-warn-even-deadlier-coronavirus-reinfection-causing-sudden-heart-attacks

Doctors working on the front lines of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak have told the Taiwan Times that it's possible to become reinfected by the virus, leading to death from sudden heart failure in some cases.

"It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure," reads a message forwarded to Taiwan News from a relative of one of the doctors living in the United Kingdom.

    The source also said the virus has “outsmarted all of us,” as it can hide symptoms for up to 24 days. This assertion has been made independently elsewhere, with Chinese pulmonologist Zhong Nanshan (鍾南山) saying the average incubation period is three days, but it can take as little as one day and up to 24 days to develop symptoms.

     

    Also, the source said that false negative tests for the virus are fairly common. “It can fool the test kit – there were cases that they found, the CT scan shows both lungs are fully infected but the test came back negative four times. The fifth test came back positive.” -Taiwan Times

Notably, one of the ways coronaviruses cripple the immune system is via an HIV-like attachment to white blood cells, which triggers a 'cytokine storm' - a term popularized during the avian H5N1 influenza outbreak - in which an uncontrolled release of inflammatory 'cytokines' target various organs, often leading to failure and in many cases death.

    The cytokine storm is best exemplified by severe lung infections, in which local inflammation spills over into the systemic circulation, producing systemic sepsis, as defined by persistent hypotension, hyper- or hypothermia, leukocytosis or leukopenia, and often thrombocytopenia.

    ...

    In addition to lung infections, the cytokine storm is a consequence of severe infections in the gastrointestinal tract, urinary tract, central nervous system, skin, joint spaces, and other sites. (Tisoncik, et. al, Into the Eye of the Cytokine Storm)(2012)

According to the 2012 study, "Cytokine storms are associated with a wide variety of infectious and noninfectious diseases and have even been the unfortunate consequence of attempts at therapeutic intervention."

How do coronaviruses enter the body?

With SARS (sudden acute respiratory syndrome), another coronavirus, researchers discovered that one of the ways the disease attaches itself is through an enzyme known as ACE2, a 'functional receptor' produced in several organs (oral and nasal mucosa, nasopharynx, lung, stomach, small intestine, colon, skin, lymph nodes, thymus, bone marrow, spleen, liver, kidney, and brain).

ACE2 is also "abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the lung and small intestine, which might provide possible routes of entry for the SARS-CoV," while it was also observed "in arterial and venous endothelial cells and arterial smooth muscle cells" - which would include the heart.

And so while more research on COVID-19 is urgently needed - we know that coronavirus can target ACE2 receptors, which are found in the cardiovascuar system. And we have seen evidence of both sudden collapses and neurological damage from footage pouring out of Wuhan, China.

If the virus can reinfect patients and cause cytokine storms and sudden death - possibly exacerbated by therapeutic intervention - treating the coronavirus which CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield says will become widespread throughout the United States 'this year or next,' it is vitally important to understand exactly how COVID-19 works, and how to treat it. That would require cooperation from China and a CDC team on the ground in the epicenter. For some unknown reason, however, China still refuses to grant US scientists access to ground zero.

MadMax

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #118 on: February 15, 2020, 04:40:47 PM »
Wait these more ..

Disease modelers gaze into their computers to see the future of Covid-19, and it isn’t good  ???

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/

At least 550,000 cases. Maybe 4.4 million. Or something in between.  :o

Like weather forecasters, researchers who use mathematical equations to project how bad a disease outbreak might become are used to uncertainties and incomplete data, and Covid-19, the disease caused by the new-to-humans coronavirus that began circulating in Wuhan, China, late last year, has those everywhere you look. That can make the mathematical models of outbreaks, with their wide range of forecasts, seem like guesswork gussied up with differential equations; the eightfold difference in projected Covid-19 cases in Wuhan, calculated by a team from the U.S. and Canada, isn’t unusual for the early weeks of an outbreak of a never-before-seen illness.

In the current outbreak, researchers are building models not only to peek into the future but also to reality-check the present. Working backwards from confirmed infections in countries other than mainland China, researchers at Imperial College London who advise the World Health Organization estimated that Wuhan had 1,000 to 9,700 symptomatic cases as of Jan. 18. Three days later, all of mainland China had officially reported 440 cases, supporting the concerns of global health officials that China was undercounting.

In a more recent model run, Jonathan Read of England’s University of Lancaster and his colleagues estimated “that only about 1 in 20 infections were being detected” in late January, Read said: There were probably 11,090 to 33,490 infections in Wuhan as of Jan. 22, when China reported 547 cases. “It highlights how difficult it is to track down and identify this virus,” Read said, especially with residents of quarantined Wuhan being turned away from overwhelmed hospitals and clinics without being tested for the virus. Using a similar approach, modelers led by Dr. Wai-Kit Ming of Jinan University in Guangzhou estimated that through Jan. 31, China probably had 88,000 cases, not the 11,200 reported

ilinda

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Re: Disease Outbreaks
« Reply #119 on: February 15, 2020, 05:19:37 PM »
Getting in a bit late in this topic; you guys have posted some dynamite information....crematoria exhaust seen from space...reinfection with novel Covid-19....reinfection, resulting in fatal heart attacks.....true, not looking good at all.

 

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