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Author Topic: HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018  (Read 1107 times)

Yowbarb

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HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018
« on: May 27, 2018, 04:36:44 AM »
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-05-26-subtropical-tropical-storm-alberto-forecast-gulf

Story Highlights
The center of Alberto has now reformed in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Alberto will strengthen and move slowly toward the northern Gulf Coast late this weekend.

Landfall of Alberto along the northern Gulf Coast is expected late Monday or early Tuesday.

The main concern will be heavy rain over parts of Cuba, Florida, and the Southeast.

Flash flooding and river flooding may become more widespread and last well into next week.

Tropical storm winds and storm surge flooding are likely from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

Other impacts including rip currents and tornadoes are expected.

Subtropical Storm Alberto has made yet another jog in the Gulf of Mexico, but is still on track to head toward the northern Gulf Coast late in the Memorial Day weekend, bringing the threat of flash flooding, rip currents, strong winds, coastal flooding and tornadoes to the Southeast.

Alberto is expected to intensify on Sunday as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but it could bring tropical storm force winds to Florida's west coast.

Yowbarb

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Re: HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2018, 04:38:24 AM »
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season.

Yowbarb

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Re: HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2018, 02:59:22 AM »
Yowbarb Note: ALBERTO remains a subtropical storm, expected to make landfall in the northern Gulf states later today. The Warning Cone looks like it will move right through Tallahassee:
...
.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084504.shtml?cone#contents
...
NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml

Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...ALBERTO HOLDING 65-MPH WINDS...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF DESTIN FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch south of Suwannee River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 86.2 West.  The
storm has slowed down recently, but a longer-term motion is to
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A faster north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected during the next few days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area this afternoon or evening.  The weakening
system is forecast to move well inland into the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday
and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.
  Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches
the northern Gulf Coast later today.  Steady weakening is forecast
after landfall, and Alberto will likely become a subtropical
depression tonight or early Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant
low by Tuesday afternoon.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 to 25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 4 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area
throughout the day.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today from
northern Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South
Carolina, and southeastern Alabama.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Yowbarb

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Re: HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2018, 03:01:01 AM »
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/southeastern-us-to-face-extended-flood-danger-after-alberto-makes-landfall/70005058

Southeastern US to face extended flood danger after Alberto makes landfall

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
May 28, 2018, 3:52:59 AM EDT

Yowbarb

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Re: HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2018, 03:25:59 AM »
Yowbarb Note: ALBERTO expected to be a Tropical Storm before it makes landfall sometime in the afternoon today, Memorial Day. The track has shifted farther WEST and it is strengthening. I can't tell if it will go ashore in Alabama or the Florida Panhandle...
...
https://weather.com/

Yowbarb

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Re: HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018
« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2018, 12:22:04 AM »
Yowbarb Note: NBC tweet, two of their NC affiliates were killed.
WYFF Newsmen Aaron Smeltzer, Mike McCormick killed as Alberto made landfall 05-28-28
...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/storm-alberto-nearing-landfall-along-florida-panhandle-threatens-heavy-rains-n878021

Two journalists killed as Alberto makes landfall on Florida Panhandle

The first named tropical storm of this year's Atlantic hurricane season made landfall Monday afternoon.
by Erik Ortiz, Tim Stelloh and Associated Press / May.28.2018 / 1:29 PM ET / Updated May.28.2018 / 10:58 PM ET

Two journalists for an NBC affiliate in South Carolina were killed as subtropical storm Alberto's strong surf, powerful wind gusts and heavy rains tore across the Gulf of Mexico coast and swamped the Southeast, officials and forecasters said Monday.

Alberto, the first named storm of the hurricane season, made landfall on Florida's Panhandle on Monday afternoon, washing out the unofficial start of summer.

In Polk County, North Carolina, the two television journalists were killed when a tree fell on their vehicle, state Trooper Rico Stephens said. Their station, NBC affiliate WYFF of Greenville, South Carolina, identified them as anchor Mike McCormick and photographer Aaron Smeltzer.

"All of us at WYFF News 4 are grieving," the station said in a tweet. "We are a family."
[article continues, next post ]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/storm-alberto-nearing-landfall-along-florida-panhandle-threatens-heavy-rains-n878021

Yowbarb

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Re: HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2018, 12:28:32 AM »
Article, continued,  Two journalists killed as Alberto makes landfall on Florida Panhandle
...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/storm-alberto-nearing-landfall-along-florida-panhandle-threatens-heavy-rains-n878021

Tryon Fire Chief Geoff Tennant added that he'd done an interview with McCormick shortly before his death.

"We had talked a little bit about how he wanted us to stay safe and how we wanted him to stay safe," Tyron told reporters. "Of course, 10, 15 minutes later we get the call and it was him and his photographer.

Polk County warned in a Facebook post that the area where the incident occurred — just north of the South Carolina state line — had become dangerous and more flash flooding was possible through Wednesday.

Alberto had weakened to a subtropical depression by 11 p.m. ET and was centered about 50 miles west-northwest of Dothan, Alabama, according to the National Hurricane Center, or NHC,in Miami. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

Forecasters warned of life-threatening surf conditions and the possibility of a few brief tornadoes in much of Florida and parts of Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama. It said heavy rains were also expected, giving coastal residents a taste of what forecasters recently predicted would be an active hurricane season.

"Given the short period of time before Alberto makes landfall, its overall ragged appearance and proximity to dry air, little change in strength is expected before the subtropical storm reaches the coast," said John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist at the NHC.

In Cuba, where Alberto's outer bands dumped about a foot of rain overnight — causing rivers and reservoirs to overflow — the storm shut down railroad service, an oil refinery and parts of the country's national highway, according to state television and Cuba's National Meteorological Institute.

About 20,000 people were evacuated across the island.

Alberto comes at the same time as a separate storm system that raked the mid-Atlantic over the weekend and deluged the community of Ellicott City, Maryland, which was swamped by a river that rose by 17 feet in just two hours.

Across the Gulf Coast, residents were bracing for their own misery. Lifeguards posted red flags along the white sands of Pensacola Beach, Florida, where swimming and wading were banned amid high surf and dangerous conditions.

In Cuba, where Alberto's outer bands dumped about a foot of rain overnight — causing rivers and reservoirs to overflow — the storm shut down railroad service, an oil refinery and parts of the country's national highway, according to state television and Cuba's National Meteorological Institute.

About 20,000 people were evacuated across the island.

Alberto comes at the same time as a separate storm system that raked the mid-Atlantic over the weekend and deluged the community of Ellicott City, Maryland, which was swamped by a river that rose by 17 feet in just two hours.

Across the Gulf Coast.....Lifeguards posted red flags along the white sands of Pensacola Beach, Florida, where swimming and wading were banned amid high surf and dangerous conditions.
.....
The storm's approach triggered mandatory evacuations of some small, sparsely populated Gulf Coast barrier islands in Florida's Franklin County.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott said Sunday that such storms were "unpredictable," but he appeared to be preparing for the worst. On Saturday, he declared a state of emergency in 67 counties, and more than 5,000 National Guard members were ready for deployment.

Yowbarb

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Re: HURRICANE SEASON in the SOUTHEAST, 2018
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2018, 01:21:00 AM »
Areas of the southeast still gtting slammed by rain, large flood watch area... seems difficult to find out exactly what is hapening where... looks like the main system of Alberto is over Alabama.

This radar screen shot from about a half hour ago:
0338 AM 29 May, 2018 Subtropical Depression Alberto

 

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