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Author Topic: Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way  (Read 1586 times)

Yowbarb

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Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way
« on: March 21, 2020, 11:35:49 PM »
Yowbarb Note: Excerpt from Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
"A trough is an elongated (extended) region of relatively low atmospheric pressure, often associated with fronts. ...


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020
.........
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/220524_MIATWDAT.shtml?

.........
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N45W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 40W and 55W, and from the islands of the eastern
part of the Caribbean Sea northeastward to 20N between 46W and
64W. An upper level trough extends from the 27N45W circulation
center to the Anegada Passage of the NE Caribbean Sea. A surface
trough extends from 32N49W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center that
is near 29N49W, to 25N46W, and curving to 23N46W and 20N46W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 21N to
30N between 41W and 47W.

A surface trough is along 76W/77W from 20N in Cuba to 26N.
Precipitation: broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers
are within 60 nm to the east of the trough, and within 120 nm to
the west of the trough.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2020, 10:49:09 PM »
Quote
Note from Barb: Just posting an excerpt from the Pacific Tropical Discussion farther below. Then, a couple definitions.


The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140241
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0240 UTC Tue Apr 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough extends from 08.5N78W to 07N102W to 05N119W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N119W to 03N130W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 80W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 102W and 125W.
...

definitions, dictionary,
A trough is an elongated (extended) region of relatively low atmospheric pressure, often associated with fronts. Troughs may be at the surface, or aloft, or both under various conditions. Most troughs bring clouds, showers, and a wind shift, particularly following the passage of the trough.

wikipedia
Convection is the circular motion that happens when warmer air or liquid — which has faster moving molecules, making it less dense — rises, while the cooler air or liquid drops down. Convection is a major factor in weather. ... That current can result in wind, clouds, or other weather.

« Last Edit: April 13, 2020, 11:10:01 PM by Yowbarb »

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2020, 11:08:50 PM »
Quote

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-04-01-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-april-outlook   

HURRICANE CENTRAL
2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected to Be More Active Than Normal, Colorado State University Outlook Says
By Jonathan Belles and Brian DoneganApril 02 2020 01:30 PM EDT weather.com

At a Glance
A total of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes are expected this season.
This is above the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The forecast was released Thursday by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project. 
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be more active than usual, according to an outlook released Thursday by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.

The group led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach calls for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or higher (115-plus-mph winds) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

This forecast is above the 30-year average (1981 to 2010) of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.



Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2020, 11:16:21 PM »
Quote
http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-radar-satellite.php

http://www.hurricane.com/2020-hurricane-names.php  2020 Hurricane Names

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gibzaki
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

Followed by the greek alphabet, if needed.



Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way
« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2020, 12:30:23 AM »
Quote
  Barb Note: screen shot,
5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook over 60% chance of tropical formation, system will move NE, May 13, 2020

NHC National Hurricane Center  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/130549_MIATWDAT.shtml?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/122331_MIATWOAT.shtml

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122331
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 12:52:39 AM by Yowbarb »

Yowbarb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way
« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2020, 01:04:30 AM »
PS this system if it does develop in the next few days will likely be called Tropical Storm Arthur. It is not likely to cause any harm, forecast to continue NE out over the Atlantic and not near the US coast.

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way
« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2020, 12:38:59 AM »
National Hurricane Center  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Yowbarb

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2020 is on the way
« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2020, 11:20:19 PM »
Quote

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Atlantic

Excerpt:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/160558_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 25N80W, off the coast of
South Florida. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the NE quadrant.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 22N to 30N between 70W and 80W. Other broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 22N northward between 65W and 70W.  Gradual
development of the low pressure center still is expected. It is
likely that the system may become a tropical depression or a
subtropical depression, or a storm, on Saturday. The low
pressure center is forecast to pass through the northwestern
Bahamas, and move north-northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean
waters to the east of Florida. The disturbance will continue to
bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds in parts of southeastern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through Saturday. Hazardous
marine conditions will continue off the Florida east coast and
in the Bahamas, for which gale-force wind warnings have been
issued. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents also are
possible along parts of the southeast U.S.A. coast, during this
weekend and early in the next week. Please read weather
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office, and the
High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance tomorrow morning, if necessary. The chance of
formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is
high.

 

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