Planet X Town Hall

Marshall Masters (admin) => Prevailing Winds => Topic started by: admin on March 08, 2013, 06:56:15 PM

Title: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: admin on March 08, 2013, 06:56:15 PM
A camel is actually a horse designed by a committee and this one has two humps now.  What amazes me more is how NASA does such a good job of eloquently explaining  how they were wrong for all the right reasons.  Which of course means that we on the designated fringe can only hope to be right for all the wrong reasons. ---Marshall

The calm before the solar storm? NASA warns 'something unexpected is happening to the Sun'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290289/NASA-warns-unexpected-happening-Sun-year-supposed-peak-sunspot-cycle.html

'Sunspot numbers are well below their values from 2011, and strong solar flares have been infrequent,' the space agency says.

Experts have been baffled by the apparent lack of activity - with many wondering if NASA simply got it wrong.

However, Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center believes he has a different explanation.

'This is solar maximum,' he says.

'But it looks different from what we expected because it is double-peaked.'

'The last two solar maxima, around 1989 and 2001, had not one but two peaks.'

Solar activity went up, dipped, then rose again, performing a mini-cycle that lasted about two years, he said.
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Endtimesgal_2012 on March 08, 2013, 07:05:09 PM
Hahaha!  Marshall, you are so right, amazing how they cover their mistakes, they must lay awake at night figuring out how to do this.
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on March 08, 2013, 07:06:57 PM
Well said, Marshal! Endtimesgal too!
 ;)
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on June 05, 2013, 06:30:27 AM
M1 Flare today and NOAA says we could have another
X Flare soon. - Yowbarb
...
http://www.spaceweather.com/   

"CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1762 in the sun's southern hemisphere has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. So far, however, the sunspot is producing only low-level B- and C-class eruptions. The calm before the storm? Stay tuned."

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html     M1

..........................
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on June 08, 2013, 10:54:20 AM
Posting this here - it seems to relate to the Topic subject matter...
- Yowbarb
...http://www.spaceweather.com/

NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS BEHAVING STRANGELY:  Noctilucent clouds have surprised researchers by appearing early this year. The unexpected apparition of electric-blue clouds before the middle of May hints at a change in the "teleconnections" of Earth's atmosphere.
NASA: video, full story 

ScienceCasts: An Early Start for Noctilucent Clouds    4:16   4,019

VID LINK:  http://youtu.be/ohQzHz9gy6c

ScienceAtNASA·116 videos
Subscribed 
............................................................................................

NASA Story:  Noctilucent Clouds Get an Early Start  

June 7, 2013:  Every summer, something strange and wonderful happens high above the north pole.  Ice crystals begin to cling to the smoky remains of meteors, forming electric-blue clouds with tendrils that ripple hypnotically against the sunset sky.  Noctilucent clouds—a.k.a. "NLCs"--are a delight for high-latitude sky watchers, and around the Arctic Circle their season of visibility is always eagerly anticipated.

News flash: This year, NLCs are getting an early start. NASA's AIM spacecraft, which is orbiting Earth on a mission to study noctilucent clouds, started seeing them on May 13th.

"The 2013 season is remarkable because it started in the northern hemisphere a week earlier than any other season that AIM has observed," reports Cora Randall of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado. "This is quite possibly earlier than ever before."

The early start is extra-puzzling because of the solar cycle.  Researchers have long known that NLCs tend to peak during solar minimum and bottom-out during solar maximum—a fairly strong anti-correlation.  "If anything, we would have expected a later start this year because the solar cycle is near its maximum," Randall says. "So much for expectations."
......
[ CONTINUES ]  http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/07jun_nlcs/

...

Story:
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on June 21, 2013, 06:18:54 AM
X-ray Solar Flares
 6-hr max:  C3   0931 UT Jun21
 24-hr:  M2   0316 UT  Jun21

explanation:  http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on June 23, 2013, 07:22:48 PM
Another M flare -  sudden!
Yowbarb

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on July 05, 2013, 05:46:42 AM
Chance of X Flares today or in the near future. More importantly, probably is the statement on Spaceweather "the southern hemisphere of the sun is waking up."
...
http://www.spaceweather.com/

BIG SOUTHERN SUNSPOTS:  One of the biggest sunspot groups of Solar Cycle 24 is emerging near the sun's southeastern limb. AR1785 has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares. Another active region trailing behind it, AR1787, is only slightly less potent, with a magnetic field capable of M-class eruptions. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the sprawling complex during the early hours of July 5th.
These sunspots are a sign that the sun's southern hemisphere is waking up. For most of the current solar cycle, the northern half of the sun has dominated sunspot counts and flare production. The south has been lagging behind--until now. June brought a surge in southern sunspots, and the trend is continuing in July. This "southern awakening" could herald a double-peaked Solar Maximum due in late 2013-early 2014.
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on July 08, 2013, 08:24:23 AM
http://www.spaceweather.com/
BIG SUNSPOT FACES EARTH:  Colossal sunspot AR1785 is now directly facing Earth. The active region has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares, yet so far the sunspot has been mostly quiet. Could it be the calm before the storm? NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on July 8th. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

Hi Res:  http://www.astrosurf.com/viladrich/astro/soleil/wl/2013/AR1785-88-6July2013-C14-red.jpg

Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on July 23, 2013, 09:05:48 AM
Yowbarb Note: Article saying this is not unusual during a time when solar maximum peak is approaching again..
............................................................................
http://www.weather.com/news/science/space/large-coronal-hole-found-near-suns-north-pole-20130722

Large Coronal Hole Found Near Sun's North Pole
Karen C. Fox Published: Jul 22, 2013, 0:39 PM EDT NASA

The European Space Agency/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, or SOHO, captured this image of a gigantic coronal hole hovering over the sun’s north pole on July 18, 2013, at 9:06 a.m. EDT. Coronal holes are dark, low density regions of the sun’s outermost atmosphere, the corona. They contain little solar material, have lower temperatures, and therefore, appear much darker than their surroundings.

Coronal holes are a typical feature on the sun, though they appear at different places and with more frequency at different times of the sun’s activity cycle. The activity cycle is currently ramping up toward what is known as solar maximum, currently predicted for late 2013. During this portion of the cycle, the number of coronal holes decreases.

During solar max, the magnetic fields on the sun reverse and new coronal holes appear near the poles with the opposite magnetic alignment. The coronal holes then increase in size and number, extending further from the poles as the sun moves toward solar minimum again.  At such times, coronal holes have appeared that are even larger than this one.
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on July 25, 2013, 04:58:15 AM
Yowbarb Note: "Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center thinks Solar Cycle 24 is double peaked--and the second peak is yet to come. Also, weak solar cycles have been known to produce very strong flares. The strongest solar storm in recorded history, the Carrington Event of 1859, occurred during a relatively weak solar cycle like this one."
...

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on August 06, 2013, 06:25:56 AM
http://www.spaceweather.com/

MAGNETIC FIELD REVERSAL ON THE SUN: 

Get the full story: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/05aug_fieldflip/

and a video from Science@NASA.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34gNgaME86Y
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on August 13, 2013, 08:36:46 AM
AR1817, is directly facing Earth and poses a threat for X-class solar flares. 13 Aug 13.jpg
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Endtimesgal_2012 on August 14, 2013, 05:59:40 PM
Barb:  Just want to say "thank you" for all the hard work you do on this website.  I don't know what we would do without you, I have no idea how you manage to post all these interesting and informative links every day.
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on August 15, 2013, 08:11:51 AM
Barb:  Just want to say "thank you" for all the hard work you do on this website.  I don't know what we would do without you, I have no idea how you manage to post all these interesting and informative links every day.

Endtimesgal, I missed your post...was konked out asleep.  :)
Thank you very much for the kind words...
I duck onto here on and off all day... Mostly I do chores here at home and then post articles and info...

I am learning along with everyone else... There is so much we all need to either learn or have the instructions handy...
One of these days I want to actually print out and collate a lot of the survival ideas, manuals, pdfs, herbal remedies, survival medicines etc. Nothing like getting it printed and ready to take along...
The idea is to print, collate, staple; put in a waterproof binder and keep these in the bugout vehicle or take to the survival location... Some things cannot be improvised or faked...some things need instructions!  :)
Thank you also for all you are doing! That is really good for my morale.  ;)
- Barb T.
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Endtimesgal_2012 on August 15, 2013, 08:25:00 AM
Yes, that is a good idea.  It is what we did with my survival group.  Every week we met and learned or shared something new, and then passed out printouts of the information for binders.
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on August 22, 2013, 12:16:41 PM
Yes, that is a good idea.  It is what we did with my survival group.  Every week we met and learned or shared something new, and then passed out printouts of the information for binders.
That sounds really good...
Good ideas...
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on September 11, 2013, 02:23:59 AM
A camel is actually a horse designed by a committee and this one has two humps now.  What amazes me more is how NASA does such a good job of eloquently explaining  how they were wrong for all the right reasons.  Which of course means that we on the designated fringe can only hope to be right for all the wrong reasons. ---Marshall

The calm before the solar storm? NASA warns 'something unexpected is happening to the Sun'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290289/NASA-warns-unexpected-happening-Sun-year-supposed-peak-sunspot-cycle.html

'Sunspot numbers are well below their values from 2011, and strong solar flares have been infrequent,' the space agency says.

Experts have been baffled by the apparent lack of activity - with many wondering if NASA simply got it wrong.

However, Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center believes he has a different explanation.

'This is solar maximum,' he says.

'But it looks different from what we expected because it is double-peaked.'

'The last two solar maxima, around 1989 and 2001, had not one but two peaks.'

Solar activity went up, dipped, then rose again, performing a mini-cycle that lasted about two years, he said.

Todays "nearly blank sun" does illustrate what they were referring to in the article Marshall posted...
- Yowbarb
............................

http://www.spaceweather.com/   Almost Blank Sun

....
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Endtimesgal_2012 on September 11, 2013, 10:09:32 AM
So what do all you readers think this means for us?
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on September 11, 2013, 02:50:58 PM
So what do all you readers think this means for us?

Endtimesgal, good question.
I would also like to hear from more Members too on what they feel will happen...

I feel it is likely we will be clobbered by the sun by the end of 2013. We will need to protect our hard drives and ourselves...We need more expert opinions on how to do that, to protect ourselves, such as a new Topic in the SOLAR Board.

My opinion is based upon an article (I think it was Spaceweather) about how "The Carrington Event" took place right after time of unusually low solar activity, during a Solar Maximum year.

Marshall found the info first and posted it...- Yowbarb
........................................................................................

"Carrington Event," The Solar storm of 1859: 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/full/seri/MNRAS/0020/0000013.000.html  Richard Carrington

Richard Christopher Carrington (26 May 1826 – 27 November 1875) was an English amateur astronomer whose 1859 astronomical observations demonstrated the existence of solar flares as well as suggesting their electrical influence upon the Earth and its aurorae; and whose 1863 records of sunspot observations revealed [a lot of info about] the Sun.
.........

Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on September 30, 2013, 06:11:03 AM
More details soon - Yowbarb

Spaceweather  http://www.spaceweather.com/

MAGNIFICENT ERUPTION:  Breaking the quiet in spectacular fashion, a magnetic filament erupted from the sun's northern hemisphere during the late hours of Sept. 29th: movie. The explosion hurled a magnificent CME into space, and it might have an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned for updates as more data from this event are analyzed.

Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on September 30, 2013, 07:48:49 AM
Massive Solar Eruption - September 29, 2013 - Courtesy NASA, SDO/AIA, Helioviewer   1:53   24,570 Views

LINK:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt0AX8L8qgA&feature=share&list=UUTiL1q9YbrVam5nP2xzFTWQ

Suspicious0bservers·917 videos
Subscribed
Published on Sep 29, 2013 

How to Watch the Sun: Spaceweather 101 - http://youtu.be/ld5ecZuHECA

Watch the Sun:
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
http://www.helioviewer.org

Website: http://www.suspicious0bservers.org
Music: http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/shop/

SPACEWEATHER:
Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com
SOHO Solar Wind: http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/
HAARP Data Meters: http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/dat...
Planetary Orbital Diagram - Ceres1 JPL: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr...
SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/
SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-b...
Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/i...
SOLARIMG: http://solarimg.org/artis/
iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSy...
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sxi/goes15/i...
Gamma Ray Bursts: http://grb.sonoma.edu/
BARTOL Cosmic Rays: http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu//spac...
ISWA: http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/I...
NOAA Sunspot Classifications: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lates...
GONG: http://gong2.nso.edu/dailyimages/
GONG Magnetic Maps: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/ondem...

Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 11, 2013, 01:03:43 PM
There have been two M-Class solar flares in a time period of about 2 1/2 days.
NOAA chart shows both of them,
Yowbarb
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 11, 2013, 02:41:55 PM
Update:  The sunspot referred to in this article is AR1865.

FARSIDE ERUPTION:  An active region located just behind the sun's northeastern limb erupted this morning, producing an X-ray flash; registered an M1.5  despite the fact that it was partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun
[continues]

http://spaceweather.com/
 
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 15, 2013, 06:22:37 AM
Yowbarb Note:
For anyone who didn’t know already:  M1 Class solar flare, today.
M-flares on October 09, 11, 13 and 15. In between the M-flares there were at least two high C class ones; C5s and C8.
There could be X Flares, soon.
===============================================================
http://spaceweather.com/

"Sunspot AR1865 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares." Credit: SDO/HMI
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 16, 2013, 10:03:14 AM
Update: M-flares on October 09, 11, 13 and 15. ALSO: the 16th.
In between the M-flares there were at least two high C class ones; C5s and C8.
- Yowbarb
=================================================

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

http://spaceweather.com/

"Sunspot AR1865 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares."
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 18, 2013, 02:16:36 AM
Yowbarb Note:
There were M or M+ solar flare on each of these days:
October 09, 11, 13, 15, 16 and also the 17th. 
To me, that looks like a significant increase in solar activity.
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 22, 2013, 06:42:47 AM
There was another M1 solar flare
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 22, 2013, 10:32:09 AM
Very recent updated image, yet another M1 flare!
...................................................................................
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 22, 2013, 04:09:51 PM
Recent M-4. That makes three M class solar flares today 22 Oct 2013

http://www.spaceweather.com/
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 23, 2013, 04:44:38 AM
Update from the Spaceweather site on yesterday's M-4 solar flare:
====================================================

SOLAR TSUNAMI AND RADIO BURST: 
Sunspot AR1875 erupted on Oct. 23rd (), producing an impulsive M4-class solar flare and a loud burst of shortwave radio static.

[ Hear radio burst preferably with headphones more info in article ]

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/23oct13/SR_Oct222013_2118ut28.21MHzM4_Ashcraft.mp3?PHPSESSID=t2q9vvs9lvpi0f4m41qb3ru4p5

See article: http://www.spaceweather.com/
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 23, 2013, 10:24:26 PM

Update tonight on Spaceweather site:

SOLAR FLARE! Earth-facing sunspot AR1877 erupted on Oct. 24th at 00:30 UT (Oct. 23rd at 5:30 pm PDT), producing an M9-class solar flare. A flash of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's upper atmosphere and created a brief HF radio blackout on the sunlit side of the planet. Stay tuned for updates about this significant event. 



Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 25, 2013, 05:58:47 AM
http://spaceweather.com/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

X1 Flare
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 25, 2013, 08:46:18 AM
Yowbarb Note:  X1 flare then an X2 Flare both today, recently.
Here is one excerpt from the Spaceweather Update. Click link to see the movie. 
...
"Watch this movie of the sun's entire disk.

>> http://spaceweather.com/images2013/25oct13/globaleruption_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=ese9gc5ogeps3jv8dj5es6aam2
The X1-flare was bracketed by two erupting magnetic filaments, each located hundreds of thousands of kilometers from AR1882. In other words, the X1 flare might have been just one piece of an interconnected global eruption."
Global eruption info:
http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/13dec_globaleruption/
...............................................................................................
http://spaceweather.com/
Title: Re: Solar Max Prediction
Post by: Yowbarb on October 26, 2013, 02:14:22 PM
Yowbarb Note: Some info from Spaceweather on yesterday's flares.
...

http://spaceweather.com/

Click on this link:  http://spaceweather.com/images2013/26oct13/global_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=43eabco8r0ocv2djh1toebr1r5